A taste of fall weather is not too far away.  We’re expecting more summer-like conditions for the next two days across eastern OK before a cold front arrives Wednesday night bringing a few storms and some not as hot weather to the state.  Highs this afternoon and tomorrow will remain near 90 with heat index values in the mid-90s, but temps will drop to near and below seasonal averages Thursday and Friday as the fall preview finally gets underway.  The front retreats northward Friday evening into Saturday morning bringing a short period of slightly warmer weather back through the area Saturday afternoon before another cold front, slightly stronger, brings another chance for storms Saturday evening and even cooler weather Sunday into Monday. 

 A strong midlevel ridge of high pressure remains anchored across the southeastern U.S. while a trough is located across the pacific northwest and intermountain region.  Moisture from TS Narda is moving up the southwest flow across the panhandle into central Kansas where flood watches are posted.  The main upper trough in the northern stream will move eastward soon and will bring some energy across the central plains Wednesday into Thursday.  At the surface, a cold front will slowly progress in our direction over the next two days before entering southeastern Kansas and northern OK Wednesday evening along with some storm chances.  A few of the storms near this boundary will be strong to severe but the overall threats will remain limited as stronger dynamics exit the plains into the Midwest by Wednesday evening.  Most data support the front continuing to move southward, eventually undercutting the boundary and disrupting updraft support in the boundary zone.  This will tend to limit severe weather threats and even discount some of the pops into Thursday morning.

 Thursday morning, we may be dealing with some spotty showers and thunder for the early morning commute in a few spots, but the impact of the airmass will allow temps dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s across northern OK and into the upper 60s near 70 across southern sections of the area.  Mostly cloudy and pleasant conditions will remain Thursday afternoon as north winds drop highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the northeastern third of the state with southeastern OK into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the south.  If for some reason we have a higher coverage of showers Thursday morning than anticipated, Thursday afternoon highs will be even lower.  Consequently, if we have very little shower activity Thursday morning, the Thursday afternoon highs may still reach the lower 80s in the metro! So, what happens Thursday morning will have a big role on the temperature forecast for Thursday afternoon. 

 The Friday morning period may present the best period for cool weather with many locations in the 50s with highs reaching the lower to mid-70s by the afternoon. East or southeast winds will return Friday as the next upper trough begins influencing the western U.S.  A few spotty showers will be possible Friday, but the coverage should remain low and our chances will also remain around 10 to 20% for this period.

This weekend creates another active pattern with at least two, possibly three separate windows for showers and storms across the area.  The first would be Saturday morning across northern OK and southern Kansas.  This chance will be low.  The 2nd could be Saturday evening into Sunday morning, and the third would possibly be Sunday evening into Monday morning.  The threats for a few strong storms would be late Saturday evening with a 40% chance for showers and storms.  Sunday morning the front should cross the metro but may briefly stall along the I-40 corridor, where the final chance for showers and storms will reside Sunday afternoon or evening.

The temps Saturday will start in the lower to mid-60 with afternoon highs nearing 80.  As the system moves southward Sunday, temps will drop with morning lows in the lower 60s and afternoon highs in the lower 70s.

Monday morning will more than likely feature lows in the upper 50s and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

The weekend rain-storm chances will more than likely change a little regarding our timing and exact probabilities as confidence changes with the data.   So, check back often for updates.

Finally, some fall weather.  Just in time for October!

 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone