TULSA, Oklahoma - A major warming trend is likely through the end of the week before another storm system arrives with a chance for storms and a minor cool-down into the weekend.  Cooler weather will also arrive early next week with additional rain chances. 

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Friday and Friday night.  Before we get into the warming trend and active weather, patchy fog is possible this morning across part of northeastern OK.  Dense fog advisories will remain across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas through 10 am. 

Temperatures currently in the mid-40s will slowly rise into the upper 50s by 10 am and patchy fog will end.  Highs this afternoon should reach the upper 70s across eastern OK and the lower 80s near or west of the metro along with a sunshine cloud mix and south winds near 10 to 25 mph.  Even warmer weather is likely Thursday and Friday. 

Thermal structures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will allow for significant spring warming today and tomorrow across the southern plains.  It's highly likely the daytime highs Thursday will approach the upper 80s and lower 90s along with southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph along with another sunshine and cloud mix.  Record highs are possible and even likely for some locations, including the Tulsa metro. 

Late Thursday night, a strong upper-level trough across the western U.S. will send a small wave around the base and eject into the central plains.  As pressure falls to our west Thursday afternoon, a surface front will sharpen and slowly drop into central Kansas and possibly southern Kansas by the evening before stalling near or north of the state line. 

Most point soundings indicate a strong capping inversion (layer of warm air aloft) will be present across the areas south of the boundary with storms developing to the north.  This means most, if not all the storm activity Thursday night into Friday morning will remain north of the metro and probably into southern Kansas.  But if the boundary ends up slightly more south than anticipated, a few storms would be closer to Tulsa pre-dawn Friday. 

My probabilities will include some room for error and include a 20% chance for Tulsa with higher chances across southern Kansas.  This boundary may remain near or slightly north of the state by Friday afternoon as the main upper-level trough draws closer to the area by evening.  As this happens, additional storms are likely to develop near the boundary to our north and across part of the warm sector, mostly along or east of highway 69 by later Friday night as colder air aloft erode or weakens the cap.  Any of these storms could be severe, but the Friday night chances across eastern OK seem to support the higher chances.  This system should be exiting the state by 1 am to 3 am Saturday morning with mostly dry and improving conditions for the weekend, yet daytime highs will drop to near-normal readings. 

Monday into Tuesday another strong looking system will near the plains, but currently appears to be taking a southern route.  This means some rain with isolated thunder will be nearing the state by Monday afternoon and evening with highs in the lower 60s Monday and mid-50s Tuesday.  The data is inconclusive on the exit for Tuesday with EURO data suggesting wet and cool conditions compared to dry and warmer weather from the GFS.  I’m leaning toward the EURO at this point.  At least that’s the plan for now.

In summary, pleasant and warm weather will arrive for the next few days, with Thursday nearing record highs across eastern OK before storm chances arrive for the end of the week.  

 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

 

Have a super great day!

 

Alan Crone