The cold front that arrived yesterday and is now located well south of the region this morning. This will bring us another pleasant fall afternoon across NE OK through the day. We’re back to cold weather this morning, and chilly weather for most of the day, with highs reaching the lower 60s along with north winds at 10 to 15 mph. A surface ridge of high pressure will move eastward later today as our next upper level wave nears the state this weekend with a few showers or storms. The pressure gradient is likely to be strong. And this will bring gusty south winds back across northeastern OK Friday into part, but not all the weekend. The amount of low-level moisture return will be the key to any substantial storm chances, but we’ll need to keep pops for late Friday night into Saturday morning followed by a slightly better chance Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Dynamic energy will be increasing Sunday and a few strong to severe storms will be possible late Sunday night based on the pattern. Another noticeable cool-down is likely Monday and may continue for a few days next week.
The western U.S. trough will load up with two distinct disturbances that will influence our weather. The first will arrive Friday and the second and stronger system Sunday. As these mid to upper waves develop, pressure will fall along the Rockies and our winds will increase speeds from the south Friday. As the first wave passes the state early Saturday morning, it probably drags a surface front across the northern part of the state before stalling near the Arbuckles or southern OK Saturday afternoon before stalling. The second and stronger upper level wave will quickly move across the Rockies and the front will zip northward as warm front Sunday morning with a few spotty showers. This boundary will reside north of the state for most of the Sunday afternoon period with strong south winds and highs nearing the lower 80s possible. By late Sunday evening, the trough moves east and shoves the surface front southward again with a chance for storms Sunday evening or early Monday morning. This small window may be presenting us a few severe storms based on the pattern recognition, but model data is inconclusive at this point in the forecast process. This front should cross the area early Monday with north winds and cooler weather f for a few days next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.