Two disturbances, one in the northern stream and the other in the southern stream, will combine to bring a few showers and storms into the state mostly Tuesday as a surface cold front moves across Oklahoma. Any strong to severe thunderstorm activity should be confined to extreme southeastern OK or north Texas. A minor yet noticeable cool-down will occur Wednesday before another stronger storm system nears the region this weekend with storm chances returning. Based on pattern recognition, a few of the weekend storms may be severe, more than likely Sunday as the cold front moves across the state.
Spectacular weather will remain for most of the day before clouds begin to arrive across the northern third of the state by late afternoon and evening. Highs this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with most locations reaching the upper 70s north and a few lower 80s south. South winds are likely to increase speeds some by midday to afternoon, with a few gusts near 20 mph.
The cold front will enter northern OK early Tuesday morning and continue moving southeast through the midday to afternoon period. At this point, it appears the boundary crosses the metro around noon to 2pm with a narrow window for a few showers or storms. The deeper moisture will be southward, but most of the dynamic energy will remain slightly north. This system, however, will bring a few strong to near severe storms across extreme southeastern OK during these periods. We’ll more than likely reach our high of the day for most of the area during the noon to early afternoon hours, nearing the lower 70s, with temps dropping into the lower 60s by Tuesday 5pm. This will lead us to a noticeable cool-down with Wednesday morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Afternoon highs Wednesday should be in the lower 60s with sunshine, dry air and north winds.
Thursday into the weekend our pressure gradient will crank-up greatly with strong south winds from 20 to 35 mph Friday into the weekend as our next upper level system nears the plains. Seasonally warm weather will arrive with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s before the strong cold front passes the area next Sunday or Monday. The pattern recognition supports some showers and storms with this system, including the mentions of severe weather. A few showers or storms may develop Friday evening into Saturday morning as warm air-moisture convection occurs, with higher chances Sunday and possibly early Monday. Another cool-down is likely early next week.
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