Moisture is streaming northward today and scattered showers with some thunder will develop from NE Texas into southeastern OK this morning. Areas of drizzle and spotty showers will precede this activity and we’re in the running around the metro this morning through midday. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be likely in the far SE quadrant of the state, but most of this heavy activity will remain southeast of the metro. Scattered showers with lighter amounts will be more likely around the metro to NE OK by midday to early afternoon with cloudy conditions keeping daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. No severe weather is expected across our eastern OK region today with limited instability and a weakening to decaying tropical circulation remaining to our southwest. By the late afternoon and early evening, most of the showers will be exiting the area with only slight chances remaining for Friday night football with game time temps in the 70s. The weekend rain and storm chances will be focused along a slow-moving cold front being forced into the plains by a weak mid-level trough moving across the central plains, including the potential for heavy rainfall and a few strong storms Sunday.
The southwest flow aloft may bring a small disturbance across southwestern OK later tonight with a few showers and storms brushing the northwestern quadrant of our immediate areas Saturday morning through midday. I think this may be our best window for a rain Saturday with many locations remaining dry for the afternoon and evening. Abundant moisture will keep the muggy factor high. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with heat index values in the lower to mid-90s Saturday afternoon. Saturday evening, storms are likely to develop across southern Kansas and part of far northern OK, including the threat of strong to severe storms, mostly in southern Kansas. Additionally, heavy rainfall may produce locally flooding issues, and a flash flood watch may eventually be required for part of southeastern Kansas or possibly a few counties across far northern OK.
As the front moves southward Sunday morning, showers and storms will be more numerous across northeastern OK. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday with a very slight chance of a strong to severe storm with wind issues, but the timing of the activity will limit surface instability and upper level support will be well northeast of the boundary Sunday morning. The main threats Sunday will be pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall that could result in some local flooding or drainage issues. But recent dry conditions will also mitigate the flooding potential.
The boundary and eventual position early next week could bring some additional rain and storm chances into northeastern OK Monday night into Tuesday, but the confidence on the positioning remains very low. I’ll keep a low chance for the period at this point with highs in the mid-80s.
Unfortunately, the pattern continues to the more significant cool-down to our north next week. The official start of Fall Monday will be followed again by temperatures above the seasonal average for most of next week for daytime highs.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!