Humid conditions along with light winds underway now across NE Oklahoma. We’ll expect highs moving back into the mid-80s this afternoon along with some sunshine and southeast winds near 15 mph before another storm system nears the area this evening bringing storms back to the area, including the threats for severe weather.
While a few isolated storms may develop late this afternoon along Highway 412 northward into southeastern Kansas, including the threat for severe weather, the more favorable period for a storm complex will be around 10 p.m. tonight into 3 a.m. Wednesday with the main threats of damaging winds.
Outside of a few lingering showers early Wednesday morning, any additional thunderstorms should be confined to far southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas Wednesday afternoon or evening with dry and warm weather likely across northeastern Oklahoma.
Warm and humid weather quickly returns Thursday into Friday with heat index values nearing the mid-90s Thursday afternoon and nearing 100 to 102 Friday afternoon.
A short wave positioned across SE Colorado and southwestern Kansas will move slowly northeast today with a few storms attempting to develop by late afternoon across part of northern OK. If these storms develop, they would be capable of all modes of severe weather. Yet the chance for any discrete storms across northeastern OK later this afternoon will remain low with higher chances across north central OK into southcentral Kansas.
A much higher likelihood will arrive later this evening. A storm complex is likely to develop across part of southern Kansas and northwestern OK dropping southeast by this evening into the metro region. This complex should advance rapidly across the area overnight with the threats for damaging winds while exiting southeastern OK between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m.
The upper level flow will transition back from the southwest by the end of the week which eventually brings another active pattern into the state for part of the weekend into early next week, yet the pattern should also begin developing a mid-level ridge of high pressure across southeast Texas early next week that may expand northward.
After our incoming system this evening, the next system probably impacts southwestern OK Friday with minimal or no impact across NE OK other than a few showers possibly early Friday morning along the Ok-Kansas state line region. By Friday afternoon strong south winds will develop from 15 to 30 mph and will continue to bring significant low-level moisture across the state allowing heat index values to reach 100 or slightly higher by Friday afternoon.
Another front will slowly advance southward Saturday night into Sunday morning with additional storms developing along this slow-moving front that may also keep some showers or storms near or south of the metro Sunday evening into Monday.
The last few runs of the Global models seem to indicate the pattern slowly slipping into summer with a mid-level ridge attempting to develop across the southern U.S. including the state late next week.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day!