It’s back to spring today and possibly more June-like for the end of the week with afternoon highs projected to reach the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday before more spring-like thunderstorms will roll across the state Friday into the weekend.
The pattern will become active this weekend lasting for several days next week with additional thunderstorm chances, including severe weather threats. We’ll continue to track a few spotty showers or storms for the next few hours across northeastern Oklahoma, but these will quickly end with morning clouds breaking with some sunshine into early afternoon.
South to southwest winds should also increase slightly with wind speeds from 10 to 25 mph later this afternoon as daytime highs reach the lower 80s east and mid 80s from Tulsa westward. The pattern may bring another small chance for a few showers or storms Wednesday across extreme eastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas, but the overall coverage should remain low as mid-level ridging develops across most of the state keeping organized thunderstorm activity away from most of the area until later Friday into the weekend as a major upper trough will become established across the western U.S. while ejecting a powerful low across the plains Saturday. This system will rapidly eject into the central plains Sunday while the western trough reloads with additional energy early next week providing the potential for several days of strong to severe weather threats early next week.
The first part of this system will impact the high plains of Texas into western Oklahoma Friday as a dry line becomes established across part of the western third of this region with a surface low positioned across southeastern Colorado into far southwestern Kansas. Strong winds aloft will race across the dryline Friday with storm development likely through the afternoon and evening resulting in the potential for severe storms.
A few of these storms may travel eastward Friday night impacting part of eastern Oklahoma Saturday morning, but the overall chance will remain very low. Higher chances for the eastern portion of the state will arrive Saturday afternoon and evening as the above-mentioned surface low lifts northeast and the dryline moves eastward with additional storm development across central and eastern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening.
The cold front may briefly overtake the dryline by Saturday late bringing us a respite from storms Sunday. Specific information regarding timeline information and types of severe weather will be refined as we draw closer to the weekend yet preliminary information support all modes of severe weather possible.
Early next week the pattern is expected to remain active weather several days of thunderstorm potential, including severe weather threats.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.