Active weather will remain for the next few days with several disturbances tracking across or near the northeastern Oklahoma vicinity. A surface cold front will move across the state later today bringing a narrow line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms across part but not all of eastern Oklahoma. The main upper level trough associated with this feature will hang to the west until Wednesday afternoon or evening. This means some post frontal precipitation will also be possible Wednesday along with gusty north winds and chilly weather. A fast-moving clipper like system will arrive Friday with a few showers across southeastern Kansas before a stronger system may near the state Saturday night into Sunday with another chance for rain and a few storms. This active pattern may also continue into early next week.
Temps will remain mild this morning due to the influx of low-level moisture and the south winds remaining elevated overnight. Most locations will remain in the lower to mid-60s this morning and top out later today into the lower to mid-70s depending upon your exact location across eastern Oklahoma. The surface front should enter northern Oklahoma between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. before moving out of southeastern Oklahoma by 9 p.m. to midnight. While low level moisture has increased significantly compared to yesterday morning, the surface instability is expected to remain low as the boundary enters our area. Enough instability may exist for a few thunderstorms in the mix, but no severe weather is expected in northeastern Oklahoma this afternoon or evening. A layer of warm-air aloft could cap limit the coverage across northeastern Oklahoma with a better chance across southeastern sections. For this reason, the metro pops will remain around 30% with higher chances to the southeast. Some hi-res runs develop a narrow line of showers a hair southeast of the metro between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. while other runs develop this narrow line slightly northwest of the metro. Our metro window will remain from approximately 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. with the window across southeastern and east central Oklahoma from 6 p.m. to 11 p.m.
Precip behind the boundary may be mostly drizzle or spotty showers across northern Oklahoma Wednesday morning before some additional rain chances arrive midday to early afternoon. Locations south of I-40 and east of Highway 69 may deal with more rainfall Wednesday through midday early evening. This creates some inconveniences for the trick or treaters. Temps will also be quite chilly Wednesday afternoon and evening with temps at 5 p.m. near 55 but dropping to 49 by 9 p.m.
The data continue to offer big spreads regarding Thursday through the weekend. The confidence for this portion of the forecast will be much lower than usual. The EURO lags precip into eastern Oklahoma Thursday morning while the GFS moves eastward much faster.
The solution regarding another strong looking system Saturday night into Sunday morning has flipped with the EURO now mostly dry and the GFS mostly wet. This is the opposite of the last two days runs. I’ll keep a slight chance for this period. The weekend temps will be below the seasonal average but still far from cold at this point.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.