Take some rain gear for late this afternoon and evening as some light rain or some showers will remain possible later across eastern Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall will remain well south of the region. Amounts will vary but should range from 0.10 to 0.30 across northern Oklahoma. Locations south of I-40 may experience ranges from 0.20 to 0.70. Any heavy rainfall will be confined to north Texas, or more southward into central and southeastern Texas.
Temps will start in the 40s this morning and end with highs in the mid-60s with partly cloudy conditions this morning before increasing clouds by midday to afternoon. We may have a few showers nearby Thursday morning, but these will quickly exit with afternoon highs staying in the mid-50s Thursday with mostly cloudy conditions. Another fast-moving upper air system will brush the Missouri Valley Friday into the weekend with some very low chances for a few showers. This system has been in and out of the data for the past few days, but any impact will remain low. Earlier this week, we had some low 10-percent chances for Friday evening into Saturday. We’ve decided to not include this very low chance on the 7-day planner at this point.
The data this morning also continues to support a surface boundary nearing the state early Sunday morning. Any precip with this feature should also be confined to extreme northeastern Oklahoma or southeastern Kansas where a few brief Sunday morning showers may occur. This chance also remains near or less than 10% for this forecast update. The pressure gradient behind the departing Sunday system appears tight for a few hours. This means gusty northwest winds are likely Sunday morning through at least midday to early afternoon. The Sunday afternoon highs may need to drop a few degrees from our current forecast. We’ll bring these numbers down into the lower 60s Sunday after experiencing some lower 70s Saturday afternoon.
Most data support a stronger looking storm system nearing the state sometime for the middle of next week, yet the lack of significant deep moisture in the atmosphere could limit the rain and storm chances. Stay tuned for possible impacts for Halloween.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.