Due to the ongoing precip in the region this morning, I’ll need to be brief. Major flooding occurred late last night across part of southeastern Kansas, especially in the Montgomery County near and north of Independence. Rainfall amounts from 7 to near 12 inches have been detected using the Nexrad radar estimates.
The main upper level low that we’ve been tracking for several days is now ejecting to the northeast. The thunderstorms that impacted the area yesterday evening and early this morning will continue to move out of the region this morning while a few additional storms may develop later this afternoon across southeastern Oklahoma or the Red River Valley region. Some of these storms later today could become marginally severe to the south. The morning clouds will thin-out with some sunshine-cloud mix allowing daytime highs to reach the mid to upper 80s today. Warmer weather is likely Thursday and Friday with daytime highs in the lower 90s. Yet the Thursday forecast is tricky due to the northwest flow which can be difficult to time-out precip chances and the impacts on temps. Some data bring another shot of storms into the area Thursday midday to afternoon, but the exact location varies. We’ll need to keep a mention for tomorrow, but this chance could go higher in subsequent updates.
The upper air flow will be from the northwest to southeast for the next few days and this will allow for several disturbances to move across the plains supporting additional thunderstorm chances. The timing of these specific waves will be difficult due to the differences in the various models. Yet we fell our general trend from our previous forecast looks good. Some showers and storms may be possible Thursday with additional chances late Thursday night into Friday morning from southern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma. We may see a few storms Friday night into Saturday morning or so, but the odds still appear somewhat low for this period. Sunday into Monday the higher coverage will be possible as not only will another upper level system near the area, but a surface front will approach the state and move southeast across Oklahoma either late Sunday night or sometime early Monday morning. This may lower the highs again for a few days early next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.