We’re still in the running for some scattered thunderstorms again this morning and later today before one more chance arrives into pre-dawn Wednesday for this current stretch of active weather. Then the mid-level ridge of high pressure attempts to build back across western Oklahoma for a few days. This will bring the heat and humidity back into the state with several locations nearing or even above 100 from southwestern and western Oklahoma into part of northeast Oklahoma by Thursday. Before this occurs, the highs will be in the lower to mid-90s today along with heat index values nearing 103 to 108 in some locations. Another heat advisory may be possible for part of the area. Locations to the south of the metro will have a higher likelihood of fitting the criteria today.
A weak boundary appears to be positioned across part of the area (from the northwest Oklahoma region into southern sections) this morning and may become active again this morning near and to our south before the boundary begins moving northward later tonight into Wednesday morning. Other storms are likely to develop up stream across part of Nebraska and Kansas today and generally move southeast with time. These storms, or outflows from this activity, will have a chance to develop or move into northeastern Oklahoma later this afternoon through the evening to pre-dawn hours. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging down burst of winds the main issues along with heavy tropical downpours. This activity will be generally scattered but some organization is possible ( a small complex) later this afternoon into the evening to overnight hours. The mid-level ridge should begin expanding Wednesday and effectively shove the front back northward sometime later in the day. In summary for the pops, we have a slight chance for the morning hours but better chances by later in the afternoon through tonight into pre-dawn.
Thursday and Friday will represent some toasty weather with highs in the 99 to 101 range along with THI values nearing 105 to 109 in some locations but the main center of the 594DM ridge should remain west. Another heat advisory will be likely for at least Thursday and possibly Friday. This ridge may retrograde (move more westward) again Friday into the weekend effectively creating another northwest flow pattern this weekend into early next week. Friday into the weekend a weak front may move southward bringing north winds and a minor reduction in temps for northern Oklahoma this weekend yet the EURO remains the hot model keeping us into the 100 range.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.