Another day with another heat advisory for a large area of northeast Oklahoma with heat index values into the 105 to 109 range. The easterly wave motion in the atmosphere may still provide a few showers and storms later today but the coverage is expected to remain sparse. Highs this afternoon will move into the upper 90s with a few locations hitting 100 along with relatively light southeast winds near 10 to 15 mph.
Our forecast remains centered upon hot and humid conditions with triple digit weather possible this weekend into early next week, yet there may be some minor changes that could take the edge off the readings for some locations. Eventually, the pattern may change enough to bring another front into at least northern Oklahoma with a reduction in the highs. The data, which has not been very good this past month, has thrown some curve balls at us today regarding this weekend. Actually, these would be knuckle balls.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure that is centered across part of southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma this morning was expected to expand across most of the area for the next day or two. The latest model runs support this ridge slowly sinking more to the east-southeast and weakening a notch. This could open the door to some weekend outflows moving out of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma that could trigger scattered showers and storms. If this occurs, this could hamper our temp forecast. The confidence in the data remain low but the additional support from both the GFS and EURO, and to some extent a few of the CAMS makes me rethink the weekend forecast slightly. I’ll spare you all the inside baseball talk, but here’s my plan. We’re keeping the forecast mostly intact from previous days. This means I’ll not change the temp trends and will keep the highs near 99-100 today and into the weekend. I will need to mention at least the low-end chance of a few renegade showers or storms this weekend due to outflows from Kansas into the area. I’ll bring a weak boundary into northern Oklahoma Monday and Tuesday before lifting this northward Wednesday. The main push for this front probably arrives either Thursday or Friday and despite being mid-July, may have a chance to move into southern Oklahoma or north Texas by the end of the week. Normally this would be highly unlikely, but this year, just about anything seems possible.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.