Mid-level riding will expand later today into Tuesday with increasing temperature and humidity across eastern Oklahoma before the ridge retrogrades westward later this week placing eastern Oklahoma on the far eastern fringes of this feature. This will allow several weak easterly type waves to influence our pattern with a few mentions for some scattered to isolated storms across extreme eastern or southeastern Oklahoma Wednesday and Thursday before becoming more prevalent this weekend in some locations. We can’t rule out a few isolated showers or storms even today before the ridge expands but the odds seem fairly low. The wild card remains some potential for another MCS off the front range to impact part of southern Kansas or extreme northern Oklahoma later tonight into Tuesday morning before the ridge expansion.
Temps will be warm this morning with low dew point depressions. Some fog seems likely and may become optically thick around sunrise for an hour or two. Highs this afternoon will range anywhere from the lower to mid-90s along with a sunshine-cloud mix mid-morning to mostly sunny later this afternoon. Tuesday appears to be the hottest day this week with lows in the mid-70s and highs in the upper 90s. Again, without the lush green vegetation and the recent rainfall, Tuesday would typically be a 100-degree day based on the thermal structure of the atmosphere but we should stay slightly below the century mark.
A few isolated showers or storms may develop Tuesday across extreme southeastern or east central Oklahoma into western Arkansas but the slightly better chance for these locations will occur Wednesday as the first of two disturbances arrive from the east. This first one probably takes a southern route but since Wednesday is the 4th, we’ll keep the slight mention in the forecast to make sure everyone is aware of this low probability. As a side note, the moisture content in the atmosphere remains very high. Even though we have these low pops in the forecast, if they do occur in your area, pockets of very heavy rainfall would be likely.
Friday into the weekend the ridge will be firmly established across the Rockies with some very hot weather for our neighbors around the four corners region. We’ll be on the far eastern side of the ridge and this will allow a northerly flow to brush the state. A weak front may actually survive long enough to bring us north winds this weekend along with some slightly lower temps and the mention for scattered showers and storms.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.