Once again, a somewhat challenging forecast regarding the storm potential for today. So far, most of the storms have remained well west of the region with no significant upstream development across Kansas. A few storms are developing across eastern Colorado at this hour. The potential for another honking MCS appears much lower this morning and I’ll make some reductions in the pop forecast for morning hours. A weak outflow may still be hanging around part of the area today and provide a focus for some morning to midday storms, yet this probability also remains lower than data suggested yesterday. Most, but not all, of the convective allowing models are keeping most of northeast Oklahoma dry and warm and muggy today. A few spotty showers or storms may develop later this afternoon along the periphery of the expanding ridge and we’ll keep a low mention this afternoon for a few isolated storms along the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line region and into far southeastern Oklahoma. Later this afternoon and tonight a few storms may that form to our west could slide closer to the region. Plus, the final scenario would be a MCV from western Oklahoma influencing a few storms near us later this afternoon into early evening. Right or wrong, I’ll lower the chances for showers and storms today compared to yesterday’s forecast but can’t remove them completely.
After today’s storm potential, we'll turn our attention back to the expanding mid-level ridge of high pressure that will bring the heat and humidity to the area through the end of the week. Morning lows will move back into the mid-70s with highs into the mid-90s Thursday and Friday and THI values around 100 to 107. The ridge is expected to move more east early next week allowing a slug of low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to enter the state Sunday night into early next week. This is some good news for those that would like to experience more rainfall. Our chances will remain across the eastern third of the state for early next week along with more cloud cover and a reduction in afternoon highs Monday through Wednesday. The humidity values will be very high during this period.
Regarding the weekend, we'll start seeing a few scattered storms Saturday across far southeastern Oklahoma with a gradual increase Sunday to our east, yet these will more than likely remain removed from most of our area. Highs Saturday will stay in the mid-90s with a slightly lower high Sunday.
Temps today will more than likely top out in the lower 90s with THI values into the upper 90s near 103.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.