We’re not exactly over confident this morning in any of the model solutions. Once again, we have a very broad range of possibilities when comparing the various model outputs compared to observational data. Yesterday’s MCS kept us relatively benign from any convection last night and early this morning across northeast Oklahoma, while the southwestern part of the state has been dealing with storms moving into north Texas.
The main issues will involve storm chances across northeast Oklahoma this morning and the return of the heat and humidity for the foreseeable future. Several runs of the WRF have been consistent with developing storms across prat of the area today. Yet I don’t see any major forcing lurking across the southern Kansas region at this hour. There does appear to be some minor lift scooting across central Oklahoma early this morning. The Red Raider WRF is not quite as loose with the convection and keeps the area void of precip. We see these disparities in almost all of the data this morning. I’ll stick with our current pops from yesterday’s data and see how it stacks up to radar trends during the morning hours.
The mid level ridge of high pressure is evident in the upper air network across part of NW Texas and will (should) be expanding northeast during the day and this weekend. This is not a massively strong ridge but should be strong enough to change the mid-level flow and keep the MCS highway away from the state for a few days this weekend. The ridge will do the June dance and retrograde westward early next week allowing a weak boundary to sneak into northern Oklahoma or southern Kansas Wednesday with another window for either a few storms or even another MCS before becoming diffuse or lifting northward. The ridge ultimately wins the season but for now will continue to migrate which is a truly typical June pattern.
The additional moisture across the region from yesterday’s rain and storms (not all spots) will greatly add to the evapo-transpiration for the weekend. This means the actual weekend daytime highs will remain around 92 to 95 but the heat index may increase from earlier expectations. We’re now in the running for some 100 to 107 readings this weekend and a few short-term heat advisories are not impossible for a few counties.
Temps today will be a last second decision based on radar trends.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.