We’re tracking the leftovers from thunderstorms that developed last night across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. A few of these may continue to be occasionally severe across far east central Oklahoma for the next hour or two with nickel hail and 60 mph wind gusts. This would be well southeast of the metro. Another batch of showers and storms are located across far southeastern Oklahoma associated with another MCV that will be moving into Arkansas by midday to afternoon. We may have a few additional showers and storms around sunrise across northeast Oklahoma, but the overall coverage should remain low. By the midday to afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance approaches the area, some additional storms will be likely, but mostly across the locations slightly south of the metro. Regardless, we'll be keeping some decent chances for showers and storms in the forecast today.
Our forecast remains messy (unsettled) for the next few days with storm chances for some, but not all locations across eastern Oklahoma. The confidence in any one solution versus others in the data remains low on my part. The upper level trough positioned across the four corners region will continue to weaken over the next 36 hours with a few small disturbances rotating around the base of the system today and tomorrow. The threat for significant severe weather seems low yet this environment can produce wet micro bursts along with some hail.
The forecast reasoning for the end of the week into the weekend hasn’t changed much from yesterday morning.
By Thursday into Friday another mid-level ridge is expected to expand enough to keep us mostly dry yet a small chance of a some left over morning MCS storms will remain along with muggy conditions before the pattern brings another system into the area this weekend. Most data support a front finally pushing across northeast Oklahoma Sunday morning with some cooler weather by the afternoon into early next week.
As we begin to have fewer storms Thursday into Friday the heat and humidity will again become more noticeable. We’ll get a minor break today and tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.