The system that brought the rain into eastern Oklahoma yesterday is exiting east of the state this morning yet we’re tracking one more fast-moving wave that will bring a low chance for a few showers or storms later tonight into pre-dawn Friday morning. This chance will remain low as most of our deeper low-level moisture is now shunted away from northeast Oklahoma. After this system moves across the area tonight, we’re looking at pleasant conditions through the weekend before a pattern change occurs next week that should bring more spring like thunderstorm chances into the state. It’s not prudent to offer any specifics at this point, yet the pattern does support the broad mention for some severe weather potential across the state as we move through part of next week. We’ll be refining this part of the forecast as confidence increases regarding the specifics of the pattern and the data output.
The upper air flow remains from the northwest to southeast this morning with our next short wave rapidly diving across part of Nebraska and Colorado this morning. This disturbance will move across the state later tonight while helping to drive another surface front southward this evening. While the moisture content is lacking, the lift with the short wave is strong. Temps in the mid-levels with this low will be around -24 to -28 C and more than adequate for some thunder production if the moisture is present, yet surface instability is expected to be very low. Our chances will remain near 20% out of respect for the short wave. The better trajectory for the system may be slightly west of our immediate area. Any pops tonight would be from approx. 7 pm to about 1 am or so.
After this system ejects to the southeast Friday morning, we’re off and running into the weekend with improving weather. The mid-levels of the atmosphere will support a pattern change with the ridge currently west sliding eastward. This will bring warm and dry conditions into the state for a few days. A major trough will be loading across the western U.S. with a southwest flow developing from the Mexican Plateau into the central U.S. This will bring several disturbances into the state next week rounding the base of the western U.S. trough. The wind speeds at the mid-levels are expected to get stronger as the trough eventually moves eastward. A dry line will eventually sharpen somewhere across the western third of the state and a surface cold front will eventually move across the central U.S., nearing the state by late next week. Strong south winds will bring abundant moisture from the Gulf into the state helping create the potential for strong to severe storms later next week.
A few clouds will continue this morning near and east of the metro associated with the departing upper low. We’ll see a short window for some sun-cloud mix around midday to early afternoon before more clouds arrive later tonight with the next incoming short wave. Highs today may be slightly tricky but we’re sticking with highs in the upper 60s north and a few lower 70s southwest. You’ll need the jacket for a few hours this morning with most folks in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the eastern third of the state.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.