A strong cold front will roll across the area today bringing thunderstorms today and winter weather back to Oklahoma including freezing temperatures later tonight into Saturday morning. A new freeze warning is posted.
There will also be a potential for some wintry precipitation in the form of sleet or snow later tonight into pre-dawn Saturday for some locations. Before this powerful front arrives, a warm front is surging into southeastern and south central Oklahoma this morning with thunderstorms developing near and slightly north of this boundary. These storms will pose a hail threat for a few hours in some locations with morning temps in the 50s and 60s across northern and southern Oklahoma. The positioning of the warm front will be a focus for severe storms later today and evening across southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas including the threat of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado threat may also occur with a few storms across far southeastern Oklahoma if updrafts can become rooted on the warm side of the boundary but most of this threat should be confined to northeast Texas. The window for showers and storms near the Tulsa metro is underway now and will continue through noon before gradually transitioning to less convective activity. I should note that some incoming hi-res data has very little precip for locations north or northeast of the metro this morning through midday. The window for thunderstorms across southeastern Oklahoma will remain from now through midnight before moving into the Ark-La-Tex region. Residents across southeastern Oklahoma should remain aware of the thunderstorm threats this morning and even more so later this afternoon and evening as a gradual increase in strength of storms will be possible.
The bigger story for the metro will occur later this afternoon and tonight as the cold-shallow air surges southward once again. Temps will top out this morning in the lower or mid-50s but will quickly wet-bulb into the upper 40s or lower 50s through afternoon with the rain-cooled air before taking a tumble this afternoon and evening as the true cold front arrives. Again, the catch is the new incoming hi-res which has very little precip north of the metro. This could throw the temps up higher than projected for a few hours through early afternoon before the front arrives. Later tonight, temps will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s by across northern Oklahoma with most of the precipitation moving eastward out of the area. A second wave of precipitation is possible late tonight into pre-dawn Saturday as a mid-level disturbance moves across the northwestern Oklahoma region. The models have been very inconsistent on the amounts of possible wintry precip ranging from zero to over 2 inches in some locations. Needless to say the confidence on the exact outcome of this part of the forecast remains low. Yet the confidence for cold air remains high with temps dropping into the mid or even lower 20s Saturday morning before clouds quickly clear and sunshine arrives through the afternoon with highs rebounding into the mid-40s. Any snow or sleet would occur in the window from approximately 2 am to 8 am. There is a chance of some travel impacts for a portion of northern Oklahoma if the band remains intact through the overnight hours.
Sunday into Monday a fast system will brush the area with a slight chance of a shower or two, including a small chance of some wintry mix Sunday morning across far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The pattern appears to finally be changing next week and will usher in more spring weather with highs reaching the lower to mid-70s midweek and possibly into the lower 80s late next week before storms become more likely Friday into Saturday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.