Cold Air Holding Firm

Welcome to 2018!   We basically have three items of interest for the next 7 days including frigid temperatures, a mid-level disturbance Tuesday and another system that may arrive for the 2nd half of the weekend.   The arctic air remains entrenched across the nation, including the state of Oklahoma, with another few days of bitterly cold weather remaining.   Temps tonight will again drop into the single digits along and north of highway 412 but the wind speeds will be much lighter as a surface ridge of high pressure will be nearing the area.   Even though wind chill values will be back around zero to 5 above, the wind speeds and values will not fit the criteria for wind chill advisories overnight into Tuesday.   Daytime highs will be in the mid-20s tomorrow with variable winds around 10 mph.    A mid-level vort max will drop down from the central plains and move directly over northeastern OK Tuesday midday to afternoon and may produce some snow flurries in a few spots.   The Buf-profiles for most data indicate a decent moisture profile in the mid-levels of the atmosphere but also support a bone-dry surface and sub-surface layer.   Therefore, no model supports any snow reaching the surface with this robust mid-level disturbance Tuesday, yet some flurries can’t be ruled out.  We’ll keep the mention of flurries in the Tuesday forecast even though this is a low probability event.   Even if some snow does occur, there would be no accumulation and no travel issues. 

Wednesday the temps are modeled to move into the mid-30s by the early afternoon with southwest winds and sunshine.   This will bring us above freezing for about 2 to 4 hours for the afternoon before another front moves across the state knocking us back down below freezing Thursday morning and afternoon.    South winds will eventually arrive Friday and signal a minor yet noticeable warming pattern with highs nearing 40 Friday afternoon and into the 40s Saturday with gusty south winds from 15 to 30 mph.  

Sunday into Monday is not clear at this time in the model data and our forecast will more than likely undergo some changes for these periods.   Another front is expected to move across the state either Sunday or Monday.   The EURO data brings light rain into eastern OK Sunday midday to afternoon while the GFS remains mostly dry for most of the area before bringing a few showers into far eastern OK or western Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.   The threat of any wintry weather is low but not zero.   Our forecast will continue with low mentions of showers Sunday into Monday.

I’m working nights for another few days before heading back to the morning hours Thursday and Friday.  

Thanks for reading the Monday evening weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great night.

Alan Crone

KOTV