A fast-moving front has cleared the area this morning and will bring north winds and highs near 60 today. Two weak upper level systems will brush part of the state Tuesday with a chance for a few showers, mostly across the region, both the northern sections and also the Texoma Valley area. South winds will return Wednesday with a minor warm-up into Thursday with another weak front crossing the region Thursday night. South winds will quickly return Friday as the boundary lifts northward as a warm front bringing a noticeable warming trend into the state for the weekend. We may see some locations back into the upper 70s and lower 80s for daytime highs this weekend. As the boundary lifts northward Friday there may be a few spotty showers across the eastern third of the state but the chance appears rather low at this point.
The first of two separate short waves will enter the panhandle region early Tuesday morning with some light precipitation spreading across the Kansas and Oklahoma state line region to our northwest. The column of air would support some light sprinkles or snow flurries but this short wave should remain mostly to our northwest or north.
The 2nd short wave is expected to move across north Texas Tuesday night and support precipitation chances for the southern sections of the area. Low level moisture is continuing to be rather sparse, but a few showers may occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a southern stream system moves eastward across the state. Most data suggest that most precipitation will remain south of our immediate area. Locations south of the I-40 region would have the better chance including the best chance across far southern Oklahoma and north Texas. This wave will quickly exit the area Wednesday morning with any precipitation quickly moving into western Arkansas. We’ll need to keep a chance during this period, including a chance for the metro, with higher pops for far southern Oklahoma. The current timing would support some of this nearing our area during prime time Trick or Treating hours. If it does occur in your area amounts will be very light. Thunder is unlikely to occur.
The pattern will remain somewhat active with another front Thursday night and also early next week. No major storm system is expected to impact the state during this period.
We do have some minor differences regarding the first half of the weekend regarding wind direction and thus, the impact for Saturdays temps. GFS holds the north winds longer and highs in the 60s while the EURO brings the south winds and the 70s into the state. We’ve currently placed the confidence with the EURO. By Sunday, both sets are indicating a warming profile with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with gusty south winds in advance of a cold front arriving early next week.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.