From 20s to 70s, our temperatures have been all over the place this weekend. Eastern Oklahoma has officially fully frozen over for the first time this season. For Tulsa, it was the first October freeze in 5 years Saturday morning. By Sunday afternoon though, we were basking in beautiful autumn sunshine with temperatures back above normal. It’s a roller coaster with these readings and the ride is far from over.
Another cold front is arriving early Monday with gusty north winds. The northwest flow in the jet stream is still providing an open door for cool-air invasions. This one will be once again short-lived. However, we’ll see temperatures about 10° cooler on Monday afternoon and another 10° cooler by Tuesday afternoon thanks to an overcast sky by that point. While we may have another frost early on Halloween day, northwestern Oklahoma may actually have an early visit from Old Man Winter. A weak upper-level disturbance will race over our already-cold air mass, allowing a light wintry mix to fall in those areas. By the time the moisture reaches Green Country, it’ll be all in liquid form, but that could be trouble for some trick-or-treaters.
As the Futureview model above shows, light rain may break out by late afternoon and early evening, just in time for your little ghouls and goblins to pound the pavement in search of treats. Aside from the extra layers to add to the costume for warmth, you may want some rain gear as well. None of the rain, at least in northeast Oklahoma, should be heavy, but it may be damp and raw at times. Southeast Oklahoma may see a heavier and steadier rainfall Tuesday evening before this wave clears us to the east. This is certainly not the best timing for the holiday, but hopefully we’ll end up with a few dry hours to hunt for candy in the neighborhood.
As we turn the calendar over to November, our temperatures will buck the major cooling trend we see in the 11th month. It’ll get much warmer starting Wednesday afternoon with highs in the 70s to near 80° by Thursday. Thus begins a stretch of Indian Summer for Oklahoma thanks to the jet stream lifting back north and keeping significant cold fronts at bay.
A weak cold front approaches Green Country by the end of the week, which may trigger a few more showers. However, this will not bring any significant push of cold air like this past weekend. It may just stunt the warming trend that will likely resume next weekend. As the map below shows, this trend may last clear into mid-November. I wouldn’t put away all your warm weather clothing just yet. The sun angle grows lower so these warm spells inevitably grow less warm. We’ll just consider this late October chill a preview of what is to come (much) later in November.