Summer Today And Storms Tonight

Saturday, October 14th 2017, 6:42 am

Unseasonably warm weather will remain today before a strong cold front moves into the area tonight bringing a round of storms.   We’ll see a return of fall weather Sunday and Monday but summertime is back today.   Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s along with stout south winds around 15 to 30 mph.   After the front exits the region overnight, tomorrow morning low temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with daytime highs in the lower to mid 60s.  Sunshine and north winds are likely tomorrow along with a drier air-mass moving across the state.   This pleasant weather sticks around for a few days next week before our next system may arrive next weekend.

Most data bring the front into northern OK later this evening between the 7pm and 11pm time periods and rapidly moving across southeastern and east-central OK between 11pm and 2am.   A few storms may attempt to form between 3pm and 6pm across southern Kansas but these will remain north our main areas of concern.  Between 8pm and 10pm seems to be the best window for a start-time across northern OK with the potential for a few strong to severe storms.   While the better dynamics will remain slightly north of our immediate area, surface instability will be maximized during this period across northern OK and a few severe storm warnings may be possible.  Our main threats will be hail and wind.   The data also continue to support the front moving southeast and rapidly undercutting the updrafts shortly after initial development.  This will tend to begin a weakening stage with the severe weather threats quickly diminishing through the midnight to pre-dawn hours.   The entire system should be exiting southeastern or far eastern OK between2am and 5am.  Even if the timing is delayed by a few hours, it would only impact the area for an hour or so Sunday morning.  

A surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area tomorrow and continue Monday with some beautiful fall weather returning to the state.   Monday morning temps will drop into the mid to upper 30s across far northeastern OK where some patchy frost may occur in spots but the confidence will remain low at this point.   The afternoon highs Monday will reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s with light north winds.

The return flow begins Tuesday with south winds returning and this will signal some warming air also returning across the state through the end of the week.   Morning lows Wednesday into Friday will be back in the 50s with daytime highs in the upper 70s to near 80.   It appears our next storm system will be nearing the state sometime next weekend.

Thanks for reading the Saturday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone