Warm and windy conditions are likely today and Saturday before a cold front moves across the area late Saturday night bringing a round of showers and storms followed by another modest cool-down Sunday. The severe weather threats will be limited to the locations near and northwest of I-44 with this system with higher probabilities located across central and eastern Kansas.
Temperatures will be the 60s early this morning with south winds remaining in the 10 to 15 mph range before increasing from 15 to 25 mph by midday to afternoon. This has kept the flow of low level moisture moving into the state with increasing dew point temps noted from north Texas into western and central Oklahoma. Temps this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s. We’ll anticipate sunshine for most of the day but a few clouds will occasionally roll across the sky.
The following information revolves around the northeastern and eastern third of the state. The main thought process regarding the evolution of the weekend storm system hasn’t changed much from the past several days. But the timing of the system continues to increase slightly compared to previous days. This means our start time may be Saturday night between 7 pm and 10 pm near or northwest of the I-44 corridor region with the ending time early Sunday morning. A few strong to severe storms may be possible along the state line region to the northwest of I-44 but most data continue supporting the cold front surging southward and undercutting updrafts around the midnight hour. We’re actually tracking two separate upper level waves but it’s the 2nd chunk that will shove the front southward later Saturday night and clearing our area Sunday morning.
The first wave across western Canada moves eastward into the Hudson Bay region tonight into Saturday. As this wave moves eastward, another fast-developing short-wave will form out the pacific northwest and move basically west to east Saturday. The first wave will shove the front southward tonight into Saturday morning and this boundary could slide down into southern Kansas or possibly extreme northwestern Oklahoma for a few hours pre-dawn Saturday. It’s not impossible that we’ll see a few storms during this period near the state line region. As the next upper level wave develops to the northwest, the pressure will quickly fall Saturday morning and this boundary should lift northward as the warm sector of the surface cyclone expands northeastward into Eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This will effectively take our front northward for the majority of Saturday. As the 2nd wave mentioned above ejects across the central plains Saturday night, the front will move southward again with storms developing near and behind the boundary as it moves southeast across the state. This front appears progressive and would clear the until area early Sunday morning with pleasant weather for the majority of the day. The weather for the remainder of the following week looks pleasant until the next system arrives around the 18th or 19th with another front moving across the state with a few storms and another cool-down for the weekend of fall break across the state of Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.