We’ll ask the question about fog or no fog this morning? We could possibly see some patchy fog develop early this morning in a few locations as local temps reach local dews. Even if this occurs, it will mix-out quickly with another day of full sunshine and beautiful weather this afternoon as a surface ridge of high pressure moves eastward from the state. After highs yesterday in the mid and upper 60s, we’re back to the upper 70s and lower 80s today and upper 80s through Saturday before a cold front moves across the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main thinking regarding the upper air pattern and the impact on the weekend weather hasn’t changed too much from yesterday at this hour.
he pattern will take our next upper level system developing across western Canada and quickly moving eastward into the Hudson Bay region this weekend. As this wave moves eastward, another fast-developing short-wave will form out the pacific northwest and move basically west to east Friday into Saturday. The first wave will shove the front southward Friday night into Saturday morning and this boundary could slide down into southern Kansas or possibly extreme northwestern Oklahoma for a few hours pre-dawn Saturday. It’s not impossible that we’ll see a few storms during this period near the state line region. As the next upper level wave develops to the northwest, the pressure will quickly fall Saturday morning and this boundary should lift northward as the warm sector of the surface cyclone expands northeastward into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This will effectively take our front northward for the majority of Saturday. As the 2nd wave mentioned above ejects across the central plains Saturday night, the front will move southward again with storms developing near and behind the boundary as it moves southeast across the state. If our analysis is correct regarding the post frontal nature of the precipitation, severe storms chances would be confined for a very short time period Saturday evening and only for a small area pre-dawn Sunday morning ( far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas) before the front begins to undercut updrafts. Higher severe probabilities will remain with this system across central and eastern Kansas. This front appears progressive and would clear the area early Sunday morning with pleasant weather for the majority of the day. The weather for the remainder of the following week looks pleasant until the next system arrives around the 18th or 19th with another front moving across the state with a few storms and another cool-down for the weekend of fall break across the state of Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.