After a very wet Wednesday, most of the showers and storms today will be focused away from most of eastern Oklahoma as the weak front draped across northwestern Oklahoma yesterday is now lifting northward. I'll need to keep a low mention for a few showers or storms today but the odds will remain around 20% or less. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with south winds around 10 to 15 mph. We may even see some partly sunny conditions later this afternoon in spot. The lull in precipitation should continue for most of Friday with daytime highs in the lower to mid-80s along with south winds around 10 to 15 mph.
The thinking regarding the next few days hasn’t changed too much from the previous discussions. A trough quickly ejecting across the central plains tonight will drive a surface front southward later Friday night into Saturday morning bringing a chance for some showers and thunderstorms back across the northern third of the state. If our current timing holds up, this will occur after Friday night football games for our area and during the early Saturday morning period. Severe weather threats are limited but may be slightly higher across NW Oklahoma late Friday night. Saturday morning, we anticipate some showers or storms will be ongoing for a short time period before quickly ending. If this timing to continues to hold, most of Saturday and Sunday will be dry with highs Saturday in the upper 70s and Sunday into the mid-80s. We can't rule out a stray or isolated storm Sunday as this boundary attempts to lift northward during the morning hours but the odds appear rather low.
Sunday night into Monday morning a rather robust front will eventually start moving southward as yet another trough moves across the northern US. The front will bring a mention for a few showers or storms across part of eastern Oklahoma but more importantly, it will bring some fall air back to the state. The timing of the Monday front continues to waffle in the data. I also continue to think this front will arrive faster and not slower but today's data doesn’t agree. In fact, this morning the GFS is even slower. We currently have a rather high temp forecast for the Monday period (almost near 84 to 88) but this will more than likely come down quite a bit in subsequent days if we are correct with the assumption of the EURO and GEM having a better handle on the system compared to the GFS.
Some of the driest air the fall season should also arrive early next week and this will allow for cool morning lows and mild afternoon highs for almost the entire week. Later next weekend another strong storm system will arrive bringing active weather back to the state by Sunday Oct 15th and possibly a true cold snap the following week.
We're tracking yet another tropical system this morning across the southwestern Caribbean. This system has a chance to become a hurricane this weekend as it moves northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. I'll be posting updates not only regarding our local weather but for this tropical system on my Facebook page and Twitter page later this morning.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning discussion and blog.