Above average moisture content compared to normal for the period is across the region today and this will result in a continuation of scattered showers and storms across part of the state. A weak front has entered part of northwestern Oklahoma into south central Kansas but will be stalling soon. Locations along the frontal zone will also continue with a higher coverage of showers and storms compared to yesterday. The clouds and pockets of rain-cooled air will keep the temps down into the lower or mid-70s today along with southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible, more so slightly west of the immediate area but we may occasionally see some heavy rainfall across part of northeastern Oklahoma.
This front will lift northward later tonight into Thursday morning taking most of the precip away from the state and northeastern Oklahoma until late Friday night when the front moves southeastward bringing another round of showers and storms into the region. A much stronger front will eventually arrive either Sunday night or Monday morning to midday with a chance of storms followed by much cooler air into most of next week. The air mass behind the “Monday front” may be the coolest and driest of the early fall season. This air mass will last for a few days next week before another system arrives by the weekend of Oct 14th.
The fast flow with the main polar jet remains well north of the region this morning but does show signs of gradually migrating southward in latitude over the next two weeks. In the next few days a trough across the pacific west will consolidate into a small wave and quickly eject across the central plains Friday night into Saturday morning. This is the upper level wave that will drive the Friday night and Saturday morning front across part of northeastern OK. As the westerlies shift southward, several Canadian upper troughs will rapidly move across the far northern U.S. with the first broad trough Monday pushing some cooler air southward and a fast-moving Alberta type clipper Tuesday sliding across the U.S.-Canadian border. As the clipper turns and moves across the Great Lakes, a surface ridge will develop across the central plains and bring the coolest air of the early fall season southward into at least northern OK. This air mass will also be relatively dry with any significant low level moisture being suppressed into the Gulf while 40 degree dew point temps ( or even lower) advects into the Missouri Valley and part of northern Oklahoma. The result will be cool morning lows and pleasantly mild afternoon highs for most of next week.
Later in the week the surface ridge will move east as a new upper level system develops across the southwestern or western part of the nation. A surface low will eventually form around or near southeastern Colorado late next week with south winds returning along with rain and storm chances by the 2nd half of the Oct 14th-15th weekend.
Our forecast for the next few days will be undergoing the typical fall battle between warm and cool. After today with rain and highs in the 70s, we should be back into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday before more upper 70s are likely Saturday. Sunday could easily be another rather toasty day with highs in the upper 80s before the Monday front arrives with additional storm chances and the cool-down for early next week. The timing of the precip for the next few days may also be tricky but the current data support a decent coverage today, mostly dry Thursday and Friday, another good chance of showers and storms Friday night late into Saturday morning, and then another chance late Sunday night into Monday morning to midday. The timing of the Monday front is still up for grabs and could result in some temp differences occasionally for the Monday high before locking into the cooler weather quickly following.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.