The pattern has shifted once again and will bring warmer air back to the state later this weekend lasting through at least early next week and possibly all of next week. While a few showers may still linger across part of western Oklahoma today and tonight, our weather across the eastern third of the state will remain dry and mild. A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to develop across the region, effectively keeping most of the precip to the west or northwest of the area this weekend. A weak disturbance in the upper air flow may brush the area Saturday night into Sunday morning with a few sprinkles but the better chance should remain to our northwest.
Our weather will gradually feature warming air developing as the mid-level ridge is expected to center-up across the state early next week with a surface low well northwest of the state. The south winds will remain quite gusty along with warmer air moving across the Mexican plateau northward into the state early next week. The result will be temps in the mid-60s for morning lows and daytime highs that may easily reach the mid to upper 80s. Most data suggest a chunk of low level moisture will return Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across eastern Oklahoma with a few showers a possibility. And it’s this part of the forecast that gets fuzzy.
The last two runs of the usually superior EURO is taking our mid-level ridge southward Tuesday night into Wednesday while bringing a stout trough across the northern plains and dragging a surface front into the state Wednesday into Thursday. This would bring storms back to Oklahoma followed by a nice fall-like cool down later next week. Our American counterpart ( GFS) keeps the ridge directly over the state and the front well north until later in the week and possibly into next weekend. The Canadian model resembles the US cousin and keeps the ridge strong and the front north until later next week into the weekend. It’s difficult to ignore the EURO, especially with two runs in the tank bringing the front, but I’m leaning toward keeping the front north of the state for the middle of the week. I will include a slight mention for a few showers and storms as the low-level moisture should be returning regardless. Bottom line: my confidence in the forecast is not nearly as high as it was a few days ago. Stay tuned as changes may be forthcoming in the next few days.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.