Welcome to fall. At least for the next few days. The front is now well south of the immediate area and we’re expecting temps in the 60s this morning with daytime highs only in the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon. Northeast winds will prevail around 10 to 15 mph along with mostly cloudy to overcast conditions for most of the day. And we’ll also keep a chance for some showers in the forecast for the first part of the day, almost in the same areas that received rainfall yesterday, before low level dry air arrives from the northeast and gradually ends the precip. The exact end time of the precip is up for grabs but I’m trending toward ignoring the Hr3 runs that keep us wet all day along. That should be the case to our west but I’m planning for some occasional breaks in the precip with the activity eventually thinning out later this afternoon. The mild fall weather will stick around through the end of the week but south winds will return Saturday and this will begin the warm-up into early next week.
The main upper level pattern will go through some transitioning over the next few days. A series of troughs will move across the western third of the nation but the overall trajectory will mostly be to the north of the region. A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to develop and become centered over the state early next week and this will bring the warm weather back into the region. The pattern for next week doesn’t resemble fall and could easily support highs in the upper 80s by the middle of next week. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop across the Lee of the Rockies with gusty south winds attempting to bring low level moisture back into the area by the middle of next week. Not exactly the type of weather one anticipates during the first week of October. At this point, we don’t see any major storm systems nearing the state next week but I would anticipate this pattern to break down with increasing chances just beyond the scope of the 7 day planner. I’ll need to keep a slight chance for a shower or storm Monday with a little respect for the GFS attempting to bring a weak boundary near northern Oklahoma before moving northward Tuesday. The usually superior EURO keeps this boundary well north of the state.
In summary, enjoy some fall weather through about Saturday. And then welcome back some summertime early next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.