South winds will remain elevated in speed today and tomorrow with 15 to 25 mph winds likely across eastern Oklahoma along and stronger gusts near and west of I-35. The recent lack of precipitation combined with the drying vegetation is leading to enhanced fire danger issues for the next 24 to 36 hours across the state with western and central Oklahoma having the highest fire danger issues. Temps are again expected to remain above the seasonal average with daytime highs in the lower 90s across eastern Oklahoma and mid to upper 90s for our neighbors across the western third of the state. As stated here yesterday, I think we may be locked into this warm weather pattern for at least the next 8 to 10 days.
A surface trough to our northwest will deepen slightly over the next 36 hours with increasing southeast surface winds from 15 to 25 mph. A few high-based isolated showers or storms may be possible later today and tonight across far northwestern Oklahoma but the odds will remain low for any to this activity to impact eastern sections tonight. A few scattered showers or storms may survive overnight and move into north-central Oklahoma or south central Kansas early Saturday morning but the coverage would remain low. If this activity happens at all, it shouldn’t last long Saturday morning to our northwest.
This weekend a surface front to our north will slide southward Saturday night and enter southern Kansas or possibly far northwestern Oklahoma helping to spark-off a few showers or storms. Most of these will remain to the north but a few across northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas will be possible. We’ve kept this pop around 10 to 20% for locations along and north of highway 412 Sunday.
The boundary will retreat northward into the central plains Monday leaving our region in the warm and moist sector. A possible pacific tropical systems moisture (Norma) may eventually become caught into the southwest flow and move near the region Monday night into Tuesday with a few storms but the data differs on the outcome of this solution. GFS has been very consistent with this slug of moisture moving into the state while the EURO is mostly dry for most of the area early next week. I hesitate to bring the pop up too much, but feel like I should offer some respect to the GFS. A much stronger system is also likely to impact the area late next week into the weekend and could offer some severe weather potential across the area. We typically begin to experience our 2nd severe weather season from late September through part of October as the northern stream begins migrating southward proving more dynamic energy across the plains.
I still think we’re in the running for another decent fall front sometime around the 24th or 25th.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.