We’re tracking a strong front that has been moving across northern Oklahoma overnight and is now located across far southern Oklahoma. Gusty winds from the north at 15 to 30 mph will remain possible for the next few hours as the pressure gradient remains tight. Wind speeds should slowly diminish later this evening and become light by Wednesday morning before briefly increasing around 10 mph Wednesday afternoon.
A capping inversion (layer of warm air aloft) suppressed most thunderstorm activity overnight ahead of the boundary but we continue to see enough of a signal in some of the data to retain low pops through the middle of the day. A small area of lift may slide across northern Oklahoma by midday and help to develop a few showers or storms. The odds of any precipitation remain very low and I may not include this pop on the big panels today. It will be a game-time decision. The good news continues to be the exit of hot and muggy weather and the return of a nice taste of fall weather to the region.
Dry air will quickly arrive late this afternoon and set the stage for a wonderful stretch of weather Wednesday through the end of the week with morning lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s both days. The metro probably stays around 50 to 53 but the outlying and valley locations of northeastern Oklahoma may drop into the upper 40s for a few hours each morning.
Wednesday will feature mostly sunny conditions and north winds with highs in the upper 70s north and lower 80s south. Thursday our wind direction will back from the east and southeast while a small surface area of low pressure develops across the Lee of the Rockies. The result will be a minor increase in temps with morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s Friday through the weekend along with daytime highs in the lower 80s Thursday and the mid-80s Friday through the weekend. There is a small signal for a few showers or thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday morning to our west. I’ll probably give the data another day before adding a low pop for the Friday morning periods to our west. The main upper level pattern will keep a trough to the east and ridge west allowing for another front to enter the area around Tuesday of next week with a reinforcing surge of dry air and pleasant weather.
With the current long wave trough advancing eastward this week and the subtropical Atlantic ridge in place to the north of Irma, the major hurricane will continue to move westward through the next 60 hours with official forecast products bringing the storm near Florida as a dangerous hurricane. I’ll continue to post information regarding Irma on my Facebook page and on my twitter timeline throughout the morning.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.