Warm and muggy conditions will continue today before a slow-moving cold front moves across far northern Oklahoma late tonight and Friday. This front will bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall for portions of eastern Oklahoma. Strong south winds today from 15 to 30 miles per hour combined with increasing low-level moisture will increase our temp-heat index value to near 100 in the metro and slightly above that across southeastern Oklahoma. We should be dry for the day.
A few thunderstorms will be a possibility late tonight and early tomorrow morning as a small complex of storms may move from southeastern Kansas into far NE Oklahoma by pre-dawn Friday. By Friday afternoon the cold front positioned near Northern Oklahoma will become active again with additional thunderstorms developing and moving southeast Friday night. The number and coverage of thunderstorm activity Friday will have a direct impact in where the front ends up Saturday morning and consequently the coverage and location of storms for Saturday. We continue to see indications that higher probabilities for thunderstorms Saturday should be near or south of the I-40 corridor. But we will not know for sure until tomorrow. We will continue to keep a 40% chance for Saturday across northern Oklahoma. The front will either move northward Sunday as a warm front, or reform across far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas by Sunday afternoon. A few additional showers and storms will be a possibility Sunday.
A mid-level ridge of high pressure will attempt to develop across the southwestern portion of the country early next week. Most data support another mid-level trough moving from the central plains into the northern Mid-Missouri Valley next week and is even slower in this progression in the latest data. This system will be close enough to bring a few additional thunderstorms near our area by late Monday night with a few more storms possibly late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This means outdoor activities for both July 3rd and 4th may be impacted by scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to be warm with daytime highs in the lower 90s early next week before climbing to the med or even upper-90s by late next week.
Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the lower 90s along with mostly sunny conditions and gusty south winds. Tropical moisture in the form of lower 70-degree dew point temperatures will move across eastern and southeastern Oklahoma today increasing our temperature heat index value to near 100. As the front progresses across the area Friday and the weekend temperatures will drop a few degrees but my conditions will remain, especially across Southern Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!