Another very active weather week will unfold across the southern plains, the state of Oklahoma and northeastern OK including several opportunities for strong to severe storms through the end of the week into the weekend. The first chance arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a frontal passage across the area. A few of these may be severe.
A prolonged period of strong to severe thunderstorm chances may begin Friday and may not end until Sunday morning to afternoon. The pattern combined with model output would suggest increasing severe threats for the week culminating with the multi-day storm system ending this weekend.
Today will be the best weather day of the work-week with sunny conditions and highs in the 70s. Yet gusty south winds will be an inconvenience for some folks with wind speeds in the 10 to 25 mph range.
The first upper wave will pass the state Tuesday night into Wednesday and will help to push a surface front across the state by this period. Storms will be possible from southeastern Kansas into north-central and eastern OK late Tuesday night into -predawn Wednesday. Some of these storms may be severe with all modes of severe possible.
The front will cross the eastern OK area Wednesday morning early with some post-frontal showers and storms lingering through midday to early afternoon. Winds will be from the northwest for the afternoon around 10 to 20 mph with a noticeable cool-down.
The western U.S. will be characterized by a large-scale trough from Wednesday through the end of the week. A few disturbances will rotate around the base of the trough and eject into the central plains Thursday and Friday with scattered storms possible across the state. Eventually a powerful closed-type low will develop and proceed across the central plains late Saturday into Sunday.
This system will cause a surface low to deepen Wednesday night or Thursday across the southeastern Colorado region and our winds will quickly return Wednesday night or Thursday morning from the south and will transport rich low level moisture into the state.
A dry line will establish across western OK with a warm front developing across northern OK Thursday and then lifting northward Friday into Saturday. This pattern is a classic severe weather maker for the plains with all modes of severe weather possible. It’s too early to pin-point the better days for the higher storm chances with any real confidence but the early thoughts include a mention Friday, higher chances Saturday and storms exiting the area Sunday morning to midday.
I always encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings during the spring, but will do so especially for the end of the week through the weekend.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!