We're in store for super-great weather today with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's along with some afternoon sunshine and northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph. Some clouds from north TX thunderstorms will move across southeastern Oklahoma and possibly near northeastern Oklahoma early this morning for a few hours. Otherwise we’re starting with mostly clear sky across far northeastern Oklahoma. Dry air will allow the morning temps to drop into the lower to mid-40's around the metro to the north with mid to upper 40s likely across southeastern Oklahoma in the region with more cloud cover. A surface ridge of high pressure has moved near the state this morning but will slide away as the next system nears the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We'll also track a storm system for part of the weekend that may impact part of the Easter Holiday including Sunday morning with a few storms.
The front did activate with some severe storms late yesterday afternoon and evening across far southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. This boundary is located well south of the area today but will either move northward as a warm front Wednesday or reform to the north as pressure falls occur across the Lee of the Rockies over the next 36 hours. This will bring south winds back to the state Wednesday with low level moisture moving back across the southern plains in advance of the system.
This first wave is relatively weak and the faster upper air flow will remain to our north. This will limit the severe weather threats to some occasionally strong to near severe storms late Thursday that may produce some marginally severe hail. The better coverage and location for any strong to severe storms may be to the west of the immediate Tulsa metro. The coverage is expected to remain somewhat sparse across the eastern half of the state for this first wave and I have technically lowered the probability just a hair compared to last night. This wave may linger along enough to keep a few storms into the area through Friday morning before lifting to the north away from the state.
The air mass will not change through the end of the week with south winds continuing to bring moisture into the state. A slightly stronger system may be nearing either Saturday night or Sunday morning with additional storm chances that may linger into Monday. The EURO seems to be the only data that brings the front into the state Sunday and stalls near the I-44 corridor. Hard to go against the usually superior EURO but at this point will side with the GFS and keep us in the south winds Sunday.
Temps for the next few days will remain pleasant with highs in the 70's through Thursday and into the lower 80's Friday and Saturday. The weekend highs should also be in the upper 70's or lower 80's.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!