Active weather is underway this morning in our immediate area.
Thunderstorm activity is moving across southern and northeastern Oklahoma this morning. Even though surface instabilities are relatively low, there will be a chance for severe storms early this morning across south-central and far southern Oklahoma with some wind issues.
Locations across north Texas may have a brief tornado threat for a short time this morning before temporarily ending by mid-morning. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible across eastern Oklahoma this morning along with cloud to ground lightning threats. This morning activity will move east and weaken around the 10 am period.
The atmosphere will attempt to recover later this morning into the early afternoon period setting the stage for potential severe thunderstorm development, including the threats of large hail and a few tornadoes across extreme eastern Oklahoma. Highs today will be in the lower or mid 70's. This second window for storms will occur from approximately 1 pm to 8 pm across the eastern third of the state. The higher likelihood for significant severe weather this afternoon will remain across extreme eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, but the threats can’t be ignored elsewhere across the eastern half of the state. In other words, we’ll need to keep the mention for the metro later today.
The main upper level trough is located across the western part of the state this morning and will slowly migrate ENE over the next 24 hours. A surface low will form along the front and eject across northeastern Oklahoma later tonight into Thursday, but not before bringing some wrap-around showers or storms across northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas along with chilly weather. Thursday afternoon highs could stay in the mid to upper 50's north and a few lower 60's south.
Friday appears to be dry with lows in the 40's and highs in the 60's along with northeast winds and partly cloudy conditions before the next upper level trough takes aim at the southern plains.
Most data (not all) suggest this upper level low will dive slightly more south and be positioned over southern OK by Sunday. A surface low should develop Saturday somewhere across northwestern OK and move southward across the north Texas region Sunday morning before turning to the ENE Monday and clipping part of southeastern Oklahoma. We’ll fashion some pops for the Saturday evening period with increasing rain-storm chances for Sunday morning for a few hours. Sunday afternoon the higher chances may be to our south into Monday, but will keep the pops in the forecast for Monday.
Temps will remain mild this weekend.
Thanks for reading the abbreviated Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Remain aware of your weather surroundings this morning and today.