We’re moving into a very active weather pattern for the next 48 hours with severe thunderstorm chances returning to the state and to eastern Oklahoma. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this system. Another system will near the area this weekend with eventually slightly higher chances Sunday night into Monday but the weekend system may be located more to our south. Some patchy fog is possible this morning in a few spots but should not be a big issue for most locations. Daytime highs will move into the lower to mid-70's.
The main upper level trough of interest is moving across the western U.S. this morning and will slowly move westward over the next 48 hours. A surface low will quickly develop and deepen later this morning across the plains of Texas while low level moisture will rapidly lift northeast across Texas into Oklahoma during the next 8 to 12 hours. The position of this moisture will play a big role in the development of severe storms across central and eastern Oklahoma later tonight and Wednesday. Most data support this moisture surging northward late today and moving into northern Oklahoma pre-dawn Wednesday. This effectively represents a warm frontal boundary. Later Wednesday morning, this boundary may expand northward into southeastern Kansas and firmly entrenching central and eastern Oklahoma in a much more robust and deep moisture field setting the stage for severe storms.
The first round of active weather will start later this morning across southwestern Oklahoma with a few storms developing during the next couple of hours and rapidly moving north to northeast. By midday, additional showers and storms will begin developing along a sharpening dry line feature across the high plains of Texas and shifting eastward into western Oklahoma. As the southeasterly low level flow strengthens, the moisture will flow into and ahead of this developing thunderstorm area helping to produce some strong to severe storms. The better overlay of dynamic energy and moisture will create a slightly enhanced area of severe storm potential across southwestern Oklahoma and the western areas of north Texas this afternoon and early evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible.
Later tonight, one or more line segments of thunderstorm activity will move eastward into central and eventually eastern Oklahoma. This may happen around the 9 pm to 10 pm hour for the metro lasting into the early morning hours. The main threats with most of this activity will be large hail and damaging winds, but a few embedded super cells will be possible with a tornado warning or two before storms begin to weaken. We may also have another small segment of thunderstorm activity early Wednesday morning for a few hours. This time of early Wednesday morning will have a direct impact on the evolution of the Wednesday early afternoon and evening severe weather threats across eastern Oklahoma. If sufficient recovery can occur between the early morning storms and the new development by afternoon, increasing severe storm potential will be possible across eastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and early evening. If Wednesday morning storms last longer into the morning hours, this may slightly disrupt the development and positioning of storms Wednesday afternoon by keeping the threats somewhat lower and slightly more to the east. We’ll not know for sure until the event draws closer to the area.
Thursday morning there will probably be some left-over storms across far northeastern Oklahoma as the surface low begins ejecting out of the state but these will not be severe. We’ll be in a stable pattern Thursday afternoon through Friday with pleasant and dry weather for eastern Oklahoma (after the early morning hours). Another system will near the state this weekend and slowly increase our storm chances. We’ll keep a slight chance Saturday but some higher probabilities will be required Sunday night into early next week. But data this morning does suggest the main system will be south of the northern Oklahoma region. So our low pops seem sufficient at this point for the metro.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Remain aware of the weather for the next 48 hours or so.
Have a good day!