Cooler Across Eastern Oklahoma, Ahead Of A Major Warm Up

We’re back on the wild roller coaster ride regarding our temperatures.   Temps today will top out in the lower 50's along with gusty north winds.  The coldest part of this minor cool-down will occur tonight into Thursday morning with dry air and clear sky allowing the 20's to move back across northeastern OK.  Daytime highs will stay in the upper 40's and lower 50's Thursday across most of northeastern OK with lighter winds.  But just as quickly as this cool air arrives, the south winds return Thursday in advance of our next upper system.  This will act to bring a major warm-up into the state both Friday and Saturday.   We’re more than likely going to set some record highs Saturday with many locations likely to reach the lower to mid-80's.   Some of our neighbors across southwestern OK and north TX may briefly hit the lower 90's.  

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The main upper air flow and synoptic set up has’t changed much compared to yesterday at this hour.   A mid-level ridge will attempt to develop across the southern U.S. soon and the upper flow will be from the west to northwest from the inter mountain region into the plains for the next few days.   A stout upper level trough located across the northern provinces of Canada will move into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday and will shove the one-day surge of cooler air into far northeastern OK today into Thursday morning.   As this upper trough continues to pinwheel across the far NE U.S. the warmer air across the Mexican Plateau region will advect across the southwest into the state Friday and Saturday.   Unfortunately, due to the dry and dormant conditions combined with the anticipation of strong south to southwest winds Friday and south winds Saturday, the fire danger may become critically high Friday and Saturday across a large part of the state.  

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By Sunday, most data support another weak front sliding into the state Sunday morning to midday.   The latest and greatest data is supporting a slightly higher QPF signal but I’m hesitant to increase this pop too much.   When in a drought…. leave it out.   Let’s give it another day before bringing this chance up a notch or two.

WARN Interactive Radar

Next week: The pattern is supporting the possibility of a strong upper level system moving across the southern plains but the exact trajectory will remain a mystery at this point.   EURO data has been securely to the south across Texas with some minor influence across southern OK while the GFS runs have been north across the state one run and then south across Texas for the others.   We have a few days to work on this issue.  Stay tuned.   But for this set of numbers, we’ll keep only a low chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday for the metro with higher chances across the southern third of the state.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone