More Records to Break This Week

It was a stunningly beautiful day across Green Country… and that’s not just by February standards. Light winds, dry conditions and 70° weather are rarely paired together this time of year. The proof, though, is below! It was especially nice to enjoy the warmth without the risk of raging wildfires somewhere in the area. However, fire danger is on the rise later this week and it will come with even more impressive winter heat.

                Before the mercury rises further, a cold front is knocking on our door. As with most of the boundaries these days, the front will push through dry with only a few additional clouds in our sky Wednesday. North winds will bring our temperatures down closer to normal readings for February, but will also enhance the risk of spreading fires despite the cool-down.  We’ll have about two days total to be reminded that it is in fact the winter season before spring-like temperatures come racing back in.

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                We’ll see a dramatic rise in those readings. On Thursday morning, we’ll dip into the mid-20s. After a rather quiet day that day, south winds start to return that night into Friday. From there, those readings soar readily into the 70s. By Saturday, the mid-80s will be a real possibility! Not only will we likely smash a record high for the date, it will be one of the warmest February days on record for Tulsa! If we hit 83°, we’ll tie the fifth warmest temperature in the record books.

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                The downside of this May-like warmth is the fact that we don’t have the green vegetation to go with it. Dry fuels abound and with a wind gusting to 30mph, fire danger will be very high both Friday and Saturday. Please avoid burning outdoors, throwing cigarette butts outdoors, having campfires, etc both of those days.

                Our temperatures take another swing on Sunday as a cold front plows through the region. Once again, this is not of Arctic origin, but will bring those readings back to near normal for several days. It may bring us another opportunity for rain. Despite Tulsa being slightly ahead on rainfall for the year, our region is still steeped in drought and moisture is definitely needed. There is not agreement in our computer models on this matter, but hopefully we’ll see something to settle the dust.

                Finally, if you’ve got plans to take your sweetheart out on Valentine’s Day, you won’t have to plan around wintry weather. We can’t fully rule out rain as a storm system will be spinning its wheels not far to the Southwest. However, for now at least, it appears mostly dry and cool. All you’ll need is a jacket and maybe an umbrella on hand. It could be far worse for date night this time of year!

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                The big question I’m getting now is this: will winter actually return before winter is over? Arctic air has been bottled up around the Arctic Circle for some time. Without it making a run at our region, wintry weather is hard to come by. It has been bottled up due to a powerful west-to-east jet stream that has not taken a sizable dip over our area, nor are there major indications of this happening in the next week or two. A trough will form over the Great Lakes and allow some of the frigid air to slip into that region. However, its position is not favorable for any long spell of cold weather here. The one piece of good news I can offer snow-lovers is this: we’ve still got over a month for the pattern to change to allow for cold air to slip south and meet up with some Gulf moisture. We usually see a big pattern change every few weeks, so perhaps the second half of February will remind us that winter isn’t done with us yet. In the meantime, we’ve got more above-normal temperatures to enjoy.

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