Another Very Windy And Warm Day For Eastern Oklahoma

One more spring-like day will occur today with highs this afternoon moving into the lower and mid-70's along with gusty south to southwest winds and a high fire danger across most of the state.   A wind advisory will be required for most of the area today. 

Weather Alerts

The leading edge of the shallow cold air mass will arrive across northern OK late tonight and advance steadily southward Thursday morning across the area.   Temperatures Thursday morning will fall from the 50's into the 30's from pre-dawn into the early morning hours along with north winds at 10 to 20 mph.   Temperatures will rebound into the lower or mid-40's by noon to early afternoon for the metro, and then fall into the lower 40s by 5pm Thursday night.   Temperatures across southern and east-central OK will be warm Thursday morning with many locations in the 50s or even 60s before the colder air arrives at midday to afternoon with temps dropping into the 40's as the front passes this region.   A few showers or storms will be possible Thursday midday to afternoon as the front enters southeastern or east-central OK.   This activity will remain (should remain) away from the metro and most of northern OK.   As the front enters southeastern Kansas early tomorrow morning, a small area of shower activity will be possible with temps dropping to near freezing around or east of Sedan.

WARN Interactive Radar

The Tulsa metro will remain on the bubble for some freezing rain Friday morning and Saturday morning with locations slightly north and west in a better position for some significant icing.   A significant ice storm is likely across part of west-central-central, and part of north-central OK.  The far eastern edge of this system (the combination of rain and freezing surface temps) may brush locations near the Tulsa metro.    Temperatures will drop to near or slightly below freezing late Thursday night into Friday morning near the metro with colder air into the mid and upper 20s near a line from Miami to Bartlesville to Pawhuska to Pawnee to Stillwater.  The leading edge of the front will be stalling across southeastern and east central OK late Thursday night and Friday.   While colder air will be likely in these areas, the temps will not be cold enough to produce freezing rain across southeastern or east-central OK.   The actual boundary may not pass the Kiamichi’s or the southern areas of the Jack Forks.   This would keep part of Pushmataha, LeFlore, and McCurtain Counties in the 50's for Friday and Saturday before warming into the 60s Sunday.   Places like McAlester, Eufaula, Muskogee, and Tahlequah will be colder with highs in the upper 30's or lower 40's Friday and Saturday but no freezing rain will occur in these areas, at least according to the data we are seeing today and the past few days.

As the shallow arctic air becomes entrenched across the area Thursday and Friday, warm and moist air will stream over this shallow air and begin to produce drizzle or light showers sometime Friday morning.   There will be a threat for some freezing precipitation pre-dawn Friday as the atmosphere begins to saturate from the metro to the north-northwest-and west.  Portions of Washington, Osage, and Pawnee counties may have some significant impacts.   Temperatures in the metro will move to near 35 for most of the day Friday with additional rain or showers during the day or afternoon.  This precipitation is expected to remain either drizzle or very light rain.   Locations north and northwest of the metro may stay near or slightly below freezing for all of Friday with significant icing possible on elevated surfaces such as bridges, trees, and power lines.   It’s unclear whether major travel impacts will occur in the I-44 zone in or northwest of the metro, but travel impacts will be likely about 40 to 60 miles to the west and northwest where temps will be colder Friday into Saturday morning.   Ponca City to Enid to Clinton will stay below freezing all day Friday while places like Stillwater will be below freezing Friday morning and slightly above by afternoon.  

Stay Connected With The News On 6

Late Friday night into Saturday morning, most data support the freezing line remaining near the metro for a few hours before quickly lifting northwest as the front begins to slowly lift northward in advance of the next upper level wave nearing the southern plains.   A surface area of low pressure across Texas will begin ejecting northeast with southerly surface flow developing and moving back into the state late Saturday evening into Sunday.   EURO data has been the coldest model for Saturday morning along the I-44 corridor, including the Tulsa metro, with the 32-degree isotherm over the metro and the wet bulb zone also across the I-44 zone.   This will be another window of opportunity for freezing rain for a few hours before the threat ends Saturday morning.   Model output for icing amounts supports the highest amounts for this event (for our area of interest) occurring during this period.   But as the rain continues to fall through midday, the temps will rise and end any threat.   

The past two days’ data has been suggesting a warm-up Sunday midday to afternoon as the surface low ejects across the state.   The GFS and Canadian model has been on board for a while and the EURO has now joined the train.   While there will be no freezing rain threats Sunday (for eastern OK), the threat for additional rain and heavy t-storms will remain through by late afternoon into the night before the system exits Monday morning.   Temps will cool down Monday into the 40s but no threats of wintry weather will occur.  

In summary, the metro will remain on the bubble for icing impacts during this event while locations to our north-northwest, west, and southwest will have a higher likelihood for freezing rain.   Watches, advisories, and warnings are likely to be issued for a large part of the state for this event, and a handful of counties from northeastern OK may also be included at times for freezing rain impacts.  

Sunday morning we’re continuing to have high confidence that warmer air will quickly move back across eastern OK and end the threat of any icing for our area of concern.  The main surface low will eject across the state Sunday afternoon and night with additional rain and storms, some of them may be strong to near severe across far southeastern OK. 

Some multi-inch rains are likely across southeastern and east-central OK for this event.   Some minor localized flooding issues are possible in low lying areas.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone