The upper air flow will quickly bring a weak disturbance across the central plains this morning along with a few clouds and possibly a sprinkle or small shower for the next few hours across part of northern Oklahoma. The moisture content in the atmosphere is very dry and most of the falling precip will evaporate before reaching the surface but a shower or sprinkle is still possible.
However, the chance remains very low and I’ll only offer some “mentions” for the forecast and not include any “real” precipitation chances on the big 7-day planner for the day. Otherwise, a sun-cloud mix will remain for the day with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the mid to upper 70s with south winds at 10 to 15 mph.
A stronger disturbance will arrive for the second half of the week bringing more rain and storm chances to northern Oklahoma. This wave should exit the area sometime Friday morning leaving the approaching weekend dry yet warm with temperatures above the seasonal average.
Wednesday into Thursday a surface front will be nearing northern Oklahoma and should cross southward Wednesday afternoon or evening bringing some cooler air to the area Thursday. A few showers or storms will be possible along the boundary, mainly across far eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, by late afternoon. The chance for most of the area will remain around 20%, but some higher pops will be needed for extreme NE Oklahoma for the period.
Thursday morning to midday will be cloudy and cool with lower 50s for the morning and only into the mid-60s for the highs. We should be dry for most of the day. But during the midday, moisture will be drawn up and over the boundary sometime Thursday with increasing rain and storm chances as the front also begins to slowly retreat northward as a warm front. The result will be a much higher likelihoods Thursday into Friday morning for rain and thunderstorms.
I’ll attempt to refine the exact timing of the state by tomorrow morning but at this point, it appears the precipitation should be focused upon the area Thursday night and exiting the eastern third of the state Friday morning to midday. If this is the case, Friday night football should be dry regarding falling precipitation.
The upper air pattern will not be conducive in bringing any colder air southward into the state behind the departing wave Friday morning. Actually, just the opposite will more than likely occur with temperatures warming well above the seasonal average for daytime highs this weekend with most locations hitting the mid or upper 80s.
A much stronger, colder front will be nearing the area for the middle of next week, about the time fall-break occurs.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!