Warming Trend Next Few Days.

Now that September is drawing to a close, will take a look back at the temperature and precipitation patterns for the month and also a look at where we stand so far this year with respect to precipitation.  First of all, it has been a very warm month with temperatures that have averaged 4.0 degrees above normal and that is good enough to put it in the top 20 warmest Septembers on record.  That is despite the mild fall weather we have enjoyed over the course of the last several days.  Notice the max/min temperature map for today and you can see that we had a cool start with many locations in the 40s to around 50 but the sunny skies and light winds allowed for a big warm-up with upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon.  For perspective, the max/min here in Tulsa today was 80/50 as compared to the normal values of 78/56.

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The bigger story for this year has been the rainfall, or rather the lack of it for some locations.  Notice for example, this graph which shows where we stand in Tulsa so far this year as compared to normal and also in relation to where we stand in comparison to last year at this time.  Quite a difference.

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But, the rains or lack thereof have been very spotty as you can see on the percentage of normal map over the course of the last 30 days.  Our more western neighbors have fared quite well but those rains have had trouble making it into the more eastern counties. 

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As a result, drought is once again rearing its ugly head for portions of the state as you can see on the latest drought monitor.

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At any rate, we have certainly enjoyed some fine fall weather for much of this week and that will extend into the weekend as well.  For tonight, we will have fair skies together with light and variable winds which will allow for another quick cool-down and temperatures reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s to start the day Saturday.  Just some occasional high level cirrus clouds from time to time over the next few days so plenty of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday will push our daytime highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s as you can see on our forecast page.

Winds will be light and somewhat variable for much of the day Saturday, becoming more SE on Sunday but still very light.  By Monday and Tuesday, stronger southerly winds in advance of an approaching storm system will bring more moisture our way so look for more cloud cover along with warmer nights and warm days.  Showers and perhaps some heavy storms will then be possible late Tuesday, through the day Wednesday and perhaps extending into the morning hours of Thursday.  Again, the longer range guidance is still showing some inconsistencies with regard to the timing and intensity of this next system.  At any rate, look for another cool-down to follow for the latter part of the week with the northerly winds behind that system.  But, it does not appear to be an overly cool system so temperatures will quickly rebound heading into that following weekend.

Since we need the moisture, it would be nice if this would be a good rain maker for us.  As you can see on the 7 day QPF map, the potential for some decent rains has gone up relative to previous days, but the inconsistency in the longer range guidance currently suggests the heavier rains will be localized and not the widespread kind that we really need.  However, some of those storms could also turn out to be locally quite strong and possibly severe.

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Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day outlook has temperatures above normal in time for the following weekend and extending into that following week.  That would most likely translate to daytime highs back into the 80s and overnight lows well into the 50s or even 60s.   Also, the 8-14 day outlook is now keeping our chances of additional moisture in the below normal category.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot