Summer may have overstayed its welcome, but we have turned a corner now with some of the nicest weather of the year in the week ahead. Temperatures are trending colder at night, but thanks to dry air and ample sunshine, temperatures are warming as much as 45° during the day to afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Tahlequah went from 41° (at the airport) this morning to 86° on this Tuesday afternoon! Even on a “boring” weather day, there is something interesting to talk about locally. Below are those chilly readings from the Mesonet that Oklahoma experienced Tuesday morning.
This beautiful weather pattern will get locked into place for days on end as a deep upper level low pressure over the eastern U.S. blocks any other storm system from coming our way. On the west side of that low, a benign weather pattern will be in place with clear skies and continued dry air. That’s the effect of a surface high pressure in place for us! We will see the cooler air reinforced by a cold front arriving Wednesday afternoon. Winds will switch to the north and keep our afternoon temperatures in check (back into the 70s) after Wednesday. Aside from that feature, there will be little to change our weather pattern as the trend of cool nights and mild days carries on for the kick-off weekend of the Tulsa State Fair.
It’s fair to say we’ll fair well with fair skies for the first half of the Tulsa State Fair. (I had to get that in there!) However, there are several big weather features on the horizon that could change things up before the 11 days of fun are over at the fairgrounds. The first is a deep trough in the jet stream that will finally push eastward once that blocking low over the eastern U.S. gets booted along to the east. This will allow southerly winds to develop and bring back some moisture. Depending on the quality of that moisture, we could be in line for a round or two of rain and storms by midweek next week.
The other feature of note is approaching the Caribbean. As of now, it is an unnamed Tropical Wave, but is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Matthew in the next day or two. While several of our computer models keep this storm along or offshore of the East Coast, it’s too early to tell if it will take that turn northward or continue east towards the Gulf. Nonetheless, it may become the big weather story in about a week whose effects are unknown yet.
As we look at the longer range outlook, it appears that next week’s cold front won’t take our temperatures down too much for too long. A warmer than normal pattern likely re-develops. This certainly doesn’t mean a return to the muggy, summer-like weather we had last week. By early October, above-normal high temperatures could simply mean 80°. Our average temperatures are in a relatively steep descent from now all the way to the beginning of December as we continue to lose daylight rapidly and cold air builds and spills our way more often. So it’s hard to stay in a nice temperature range for all that long. However, the week or two ahead remains rather steady in a very comfortable range. That, we’ll have to enjoy before the season takes its inevitable, more turbulent turn with arguably less welcome cold air intrusions.