Tracking Weekend Storm System For Eastern Oklahoma

Thursday, September 22nd 2016, 4:04 am
By: Alan Crone

A developing upper-level storm system across the Pacific Northwest will eventually bring rain and cooler air back to the state for part of the weekend. Temperatures this morning are noticeably cooler as dryer air filtered across part of Oklahoma yesterday afternoon and evening. Daytime highs are still expected to move into the lower 90s today along with sunshine and south winds at 10 miles per hour.

South winds will continue to increase Friday at 10 to 15 mph with low level moisture surging back into eastern OK by Friday night and Saturday morning. A few showers and storms are possible early Saturday, but the higher probability should remain across western Oklahoma for most of the morning.   Our temperatures Saturday morning will start near 70 and finish in the upper 80s.  A temperature heat index value Saturday may reach into the lower 90s.   Even though most of the precip will stay west of the area Saturday morning, a few spotty showers or storms will be possible.

WARN Interactive Radar

As the main upper level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest ejects to the central plains Saturday and Sunday, showers and storms will become more numerous across part of Central and Eastern Oklahoma late Saturday night into Sunday.   The upper air flow, basically from the south to the north, will keep the potential for pockets of moderate to heavy rain and training of storm cells across the area Sunday and Sunday night.   While the severe weather threat is not zero, the main threats will be pockets of moderate to heavy rain for some locations.  Because of the presence of increased cloud cover and rain cooled air, temperatures Sunday will start in the upper 60s and could easily stay in the lower 70s for afternoon highs.

Weather Alerts

The evolution of the above-mentioned upper-level system remains unclear by Monday and Tuesday.    The Euro data is slower and the GFS is faster with the ejection of the system. The result will be to keep a chance for showers and storms Monday for part of Eastern Oklahoma through the midday time period.  This probability may be increased in subsequent forecast cycles.   Some data have suggested a cut-off developing at the base of the trough and impacting part of our area for a few days next week.  Our forecast for the Monday through Wednesday period could go through additional changes later this weekend regarding this time period.   Currently we’re keeping highs in the 70s with dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.   Any changes would more than likely bring pops back into the forecast and lower temps with highs in the 60s.

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In summary above seasonal average temperatures are likely both today and tomorrow.  Friday Night Football does appear warm but dry for almost all of the area.   A few spotty showers may be possible across far southeastern OK along the Red River Valley.  But increasing rain and storm chances will develop and move across the area for the second half of the weekend. A taste of fall air is likely for most of next week.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone