The pattern will become active soon with increasing rain and storm chances including later tonight into Wednesday as the first of two systems will near the area. Temperatures today will remain warm with highs in the lower 90s along with increasing humidity across eastern OK as low level moisture begins surging back into the area. Another system will near the state Thursday and Friday bringing even better chances for showers and storms to eastern OK. The data for the weekend suggest a slow clearing trend for Saturday but we may still have some early morning to midday rain across part of eastern OK before a surface ridge of high pressure builds into the area. Yet another system will bring some rain or storm chances Sunday night into early next week.
A cold front is located to the northwest of the area this morning and will gradually advance southeastward later today with a few showers or storms more likely across the west-central to north-central part of the state midday to afternoon. We could see one or two storms ahead of these features later today, but the better timing will remain later tonight as the boundary nears northeastern OK. A few storms will be possible across the northeastern quad of the state as the boundary passes the metro early Wednesday morning. This front will stall near the I-40 region bringing north winds and a minor cool down Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Later Wednesday night a stronger upper level trough will be ejecting out of the Rockies into the northern high plains. A surface area of low pressure will develop in response to this system and should be located somewhere across southeastern Colorado and western Kansas. The weak stationary boundary near I-40 will lift northward as moist air streams back across northern OK Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Thursday as this process begins but will become even more widespread Friday as the above mentioned trough nears the central plains and the surface front to our north moves southward again. Rain and storms will be more likely Friday with both morning and afternoon storms a possibility. Severe weather is not expected but pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall along with some cloud to ground lightning will be possible. Unfortunately, the timing in the data also suggest that Friday Night Football games may not be spared this week from the precipitation chances. Last week the storms held off until right at the end of the games but this week the timing continues to suggest some precipitation will be possible for Friday night. We’re still early in the timing process and things can and do change.
Yesterday’s data suggested that rain would end early Saturday morning but I’m not exactly sold on this solution. There are some signals in the data that may require us to keep a mention through at least midday and we may also need to increase the pops slightly from our current numbers for Saturday morning.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!