We’re looking at a few chances for rain and storms for the next few days followed by a noticeable cool-down Saturday and Sunday. The next front arrives around Wednesday of next week with fall-like weather remaining for most of the 2nd half of next week. But temperatures today will continue to be well above the seasonal average with highs in the mid-90s along with gusty southwest winds and heat index values from 99 to 103. A small convectively induced area of vorticity is noted near Canadian, TX this morning lifting northeast. If this feature moves into our area later today, we could see a few showers or storms to our northwest. But the currently trajectory should keep this feature too far removed to our northwest and I’ll not add any pops for the day.
A stationary boundary is located to our northwest this morning and will continue to remain north of the area until late Friday night and Saturday morning. But significant tropical moisture, some of which connected with the pacific storm Newton, will spread across the central plains including southern Kansas and extreme northern OK resulting in some storm chances later tonight through Thursday morning across locations along and north of highway 412. This will include the Tulsa metro. The higher chances will remain in southern Kansas but some spotty showers and storms will be possible across northern OK Thursday. South winds will remain along with warm and muggy conditions. Rain is underway this morning across the high plains of Texas spreading into southwestern and central Kansas.
Thursday night into Friday the stationary boundary may lift northeast away from the state after giving us a chance for a few storms late Thursday night into Friday morning. Once again the higher chances will remain across southern Kansas.
Late Friday night into Saturday a strong mid-level trough will eject from the Pacific Northwest into the central plains allowing a strong cold front to sweep southward into the state. Showers and storms will be likely along and behind the boundary by late Friday night into early Saturday. The current timing would support the higher chances after Friday night football and through the first part of Saturday morning. The presence of deep moisture in the atmosphere may result in heavy rainfall for some locations but most data support a rather fast frontal passage which will limit any significant heavy rainfall potential for our immediate areas.
As the front passes, dry and stable air will move southward allowing Saturday morning lows in the mid-60s and highs in the lower 80s as clouds rapidly clear from the northwest to southeast by midday. North winds at 10 to 15 mph will be likely.
Clear sky, dry air, and light winds will allow Sunday morning lows in the mid to upper 50s and highs in the mid-80s with sunshine and southeast winds returning by afternoon.
Early next week another strong looking front will arrive by the middle of next week with another round of storms followed by pleasant yet seasonal fall air for the remainder of the week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!