The main upper level pattern has changed compared to last week with the mid-level ridge much weaker and the upper air flow more active across the central plains. A surface front is draped across part of northern OK this morning and may provide a focus for a few showers and storms. Storms last night across western OK are moving ENE this morning and several outflows from this activity may also float eastward and help to initiate a few storms later today.
So…. basically…. we’re in the running for a few more storms this morning and possibly another complex near the area late tonight into Tuesday morning before the ridge may expand slightly northward. Various model output is all over the place with different timing, placement, and solutions, but the prudent call is to keep a mention for a few storms. After the morning hours, the better chance may end up across south-central or southern OK but we’ll need to keep a mention for the entire area today.
Late tonight into Tuesday morning we may also have another complex near or north of the metro. This chance will remain somewhat low.
Wednesday and Thursday some deep layer moisture across southeastern and east central OK could provide for daily isolated storms but most data are now very limited with actual output. If a storm develops Wednesday or Thursday, it would be isolated and mainly across far eastern OK.
By the end of the week a mid level trough is expected to move across the northern high plains and should drive a cold front southward into the state Friday or Saturday. These fronts would typically stall and remain north of most of the state during a normal cycle August but we’ll bring this front southward through all of the area late Friday and Saturday with a chance for more storms and some not as hot air.
Temperatures across northern OK will be tricky today and dependent upon how long the morning storms and clouds linger across the area. Our current advisories from the NWS will keep heat advisories today for locations south of the metro with heat index values from 105 to 109. These areas have been mostly void of the pre-dawn storms.
Locations near and north of the metro are currently not included in the advisory but may be added later today. Actual temps in the metro should top out around 93 to 95.
Temperatures will be in the mid to lower 90s north and near 100 south this afternoon. These readings will remain for the week with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs in the 90s for the rest of the week. Wednesday into Thursday the ridge may expand slightly and highs may reach the upper 90s Wednesday and 100 Thursday for the metro.
Friday the lows in the upper 70s will be followed by highs in the lower to mid 90s before the front moves across the area. We’ll lower the highs almost 10 degrees for Saturday into Sunday behind the Friday front and keep a decent mention of showers and storms for part of Saturday. This would mean highs Saturday around 89 and near 90 for Sunday.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.