The mid-level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the main focus for most of the state through the end of the week. But a few isolated showers or storms will still be possible on the “periphery” or the edge of the ridge for the next few days. A few echoes are noted this morning across southeastern Kansas and many of the convective allowing models develop quite a bit of activity this morning across part of northeastern OK. Under the current circumstances, it appears the convective process in the model is too robust. While I can’t rule out a stray shower or two this morning in these areas, the chances will need to stay low for these areas of northern OK. I’ll make a last minute, bottom of the 9th, 2 out with runners in scoring position decision about whether to add a real pop to the forecast.
Temperatures will continue to be nearing 100 for the rest of the week regarding daytime highs with morning lows in the upper 70s near 80 in the metro. Dew point temperatures are expected to slowly increase through the end of the week and a few heat advisories may be required again across part of the area. We had a short-term advisory issued yesterday afternoon as heat indices crossed the 105 mark in a number of spots across northeastern OK.
Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s will quickly move into the upper 80s by 10am and into the lower 90s through the noon hour. Afternoon highs are expected near 100 for a number of locations across eastern OK from Pawnee to Tulsa to Muskogee southwestward. Some areas across east-central OK may stay in the upper 90s for afternoon highs. Heat indices today will be near 105-108.
Most data support the ridge slowly changing shape and also weakening Friday through the weekend. While we’ll keep the hot weather with highs near 100 across the big board for most spots, a few locations will top out in the upper 90s. As this process of weakening starts to take shape, a few more scattered showers and storms will take a run at part of northeastern OK. We don’t have a pop for Friday but may end up placing a small chance on the map as a weak boundary will near part of the state.
Sunday into next week the ridge will be much weaker and should flatten. This will allow a slightly more favorable upper air flow near the state that may bring a few storm systems near the area. We’ll keep at least a slight mention for a few isolated storms in the forecast from Sunday through early next week along with highs in the mid to upper 90s. We may eventually need some higher probabilities in the forecast for the middle to end of next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!