A weak boundary is located across part of Northern Oklahoma this morning and will provide a focus for a few showers and storms. There will be a chance for some activity near the metro. A number of locations across the southern and eastern part of the state will remain void of precipitation. Temperatures this morning will stay in the upper 60s and lower 70s and climb back into the upper 80s near 90 for the daytime high. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will continue to expand this weekend keeping most storm activity north of the Tulsa Metro Saturday. Another boundary may move southward bringing a slightly higher chance for showers and storms Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and early Monday morning. Temperatures next week will be nearing triple digits Wednesday and especially Thursday, and Friday.
We experienced a few showers and storms in Northern Oklahoma late yesterday afternoon and early evening. A couple of these produced heavy downpours and some severe winds. This morning, some leftover showers and storms will continue, roughly along Highway 412 north for the next few hours. Severe weather is not likely but a few storms may produce gusty winds and pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. A possible MCV (induced area of vorticity) may move near northeastern OK by midday to early afternoon and could trigger additional storms. But the upper flow, by later today, may support this MCV moving slightly north of east into southern Kansas.
Most data support the mid-level ridge of high pressure expanding to the east and north over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will more than likely keep most if not all precipitation Saturday across part of Kansas. We will keep a slight mention for a few storms across portions of Northeastern or Eastern Oklahoma but the chance will remain very low. Temperatures are expected to climb from the 70s Saturday morning into the mid and upper 90s by Saturday afternoon. South Winds at 10 to 25 miles per hour will be likely.
Sunday a upper level system will be approaching the Southern Plains and a surface boundary located across Southern Kansas will slowly move southward. The combination of these weather features combined with a tropical air mass would produce scattered showers and storms beginning Sunday afternoon and expanding to the East and Southeast by Sunday night. If you have outdoor activities planned Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, you should remain aware that thunder storms will be a possibility. The current timing supports this system exiting early Monday morning. This means most of the Fourth of July should be precipitation free after the early morning hours. The temperature Monday afternoon would be back into the lower to mid-90s.
Data today also suggest a few spotty showers will be possible Tuesday, but we think this may be overdone. At this point I will not include a chance for showers Tuesday.
The ensemble data for the last several days has continued to suggest triple-digit weather Wednesday into the second half of next week. I will place a 97 on the map for Wednesday, and 99 for Thursday and Friday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning where the discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!