Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Feels Like Summer

Did you feel the difference yesterday?  If not, you’ll more than likely feel the difference today and this weekend as low level moisture continues to move across Texas into Oklahoma.   Temperatures will not change too much on a day by day basis but the local temperature heat index value will continue to climb into the mid and upper 90s through the weekend with some locations hitting the 100 degree heat index Sunday and Monday.   The upper air pattern will become more conducive for a few showers and storms early next week.

The upper air pattern currently consists of a mid-level ridge of high pressure covering the most of the central plains states this morning.   A smaller ridge is noted slightly east of the state in the 5k ft level.  The mean ridge will shift eastward soon and then flatten later this weekend.   The next upper level feature will approach the state Monday and Tuesday with a surface front also sliding southward across the central plains Tuesday.   Precipitable water values are expected to be around 1.5 to 2.5 through the early part of next week with local dew point temperatures moving into the mid-70s.   The deep layer shear will remain weak and the organized severe weather threat will also remain low.  But storms will be highly efficient rainfall producers next week with some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall possible in some, but not all locations.  Data this morning is not quite as suggestive for storms compared to previous runs, but we’re not making any major changes to the forecast at this point.

Before we see this pattern change early next week, a few widely space, afternoon pop up storms will be possible across far eastern OK and western Arkansas for the next few days, with Saturday and Sunday offering the better chances.   

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This morning a few storms that developed out of southeastern Colorado overnight will move eastward into northwestern OK and western Kansas before weakening at mid morning.   These will not move into eastern OK but a few clouds will spread eastward over the area early this morning before a mostly sunny afternoon unfolds across the region.

Temperatures this morning will stay in the upper 60s and lower 70s.   Daytime highs are expected to move into the lower 90s today with south winds at 10 to 25 mph.   These temperatures will continue for the next few days before dropping slightly Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s and a few lower 90s.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone