Alan Crone's Weather Blog: More Shower Chances Today


Thursday, May 19th 2016, 4:13 am
By: Alan Crone


A disturbance in the upper levels is passing near the state today and will bring a chance for scattered showers across northern and eastern OK.  No severe weather will occur and some locations will remain dry with this system.   The better timing for some activity near northern OK will be late morning into the evening hours.   Once this disturbance moves east later tonight, a warming trend will remain for this weekend through all of next week.   Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s along with mostly cloudy conditions.

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The weekend upper air flow may still be sharp enough from the northwest to bring a disturbance underneath the ridge.  The NAM has been persistent with this suggestion with increasing storm chances while other data support a dry forecast.   Our forecast added a chance for precipitation for this weekend during the Thursday night update, and we’ll keep a slight mention for this period, at least for one more cycle.   The confidence for the weekend storm chances will remain low.

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The upper pattern will transition soon to southwesterly flow aloft early next week.   This means several small disturbances will move from the southwest to northeast over the southern plains early next week before a major upper level trough advances near the area by Thursday and Friday.   This pattern will support south winds, increasing low level moisture, higher humidity, and almost daily thunderstorm chances from this weekend into next week.   The exact positioning of the main surface features will flip around in the data, but the pattern will support active weather next week, including the potential for heavy to severe storms. Next week we’ll keep low chances in the forecast but periodically higher chances will be required as the data becomes more apparent. 

Temperatures today will be cool.  Lows in the mid-50s will be followed by highs in the mid to upper 60s along with mostly cloudy conditions.   Friday morning lows will be in the lower 50s.  Highs tomorrow afternoon should be in the mid-70s with decreasing clouds after the early morning spotty showers exit far eastern OK.  

This weekend high temperatures will be in the lower 80s Saturday and the mid-80s Sunday.   Lows will be in the mid-50s Saturday and the lower 60s Sunday.   Temperatures next week will be characterized by lows in the mid-60s and highs in the mid-80s.   South winds at 10 to 25 mph will be likely for most of next week. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone