A complex of thunderstorm activity is moving across northeastern and eastern OK this morning. As of this posting the severe weather threat remains low and continues to decrease as the MCS moves into an area of low instability. This line will slide across southeastern OK early this morning with spotty showers and thunder remaining behind the front for a few hours across eastern OK. Any additional showers or storms this afternoon and evening will more than likely remain across far southeastern OK. A few spotty showers are possible Wednesday but higher chances will remain Thursday as another upper wave passes the area. Relatively cool air will remain through the midweek with temperatures warming into the 80s this weekend. Highs today should stay in the lower 60s north and a few upper 60s near 70 south.
The warm sector remained to our south yesterday afternoon and evening as the storm complex developed across northwestern OK. This complex should clear most of northeastern OK around 8am to 10am and ending across southeastern and far eastern OK around 10am to noon at the latest.
Later this afternoon as the cold front moves back across the state, a few strong to severe storms may develop across far southeastern OK and north TX.
The next upper level wave will move near the state Wednesday night into Thursday as it weakens. This system will provide more activity late Wednesday night into Thursday. The higher chances will be centered on Thursday for our immediate area and this activity will remain below severe levels across northern OK with a few stronger storms possible across far southern OK. The better chances for any severe storms Thursday will remain across Texas and even this threat appears low for our southern neighbors.
Friday into the weekend features a warming trend and mostly dry conditions. There is some concern that an isolated shower or storm may develop Sunday across eastern OK as moisture begins streaming northward in the form of higher dew points, but this chance remains very low. We’ll keep a 10 pop on the map.
Sunday night into Monday, the upper air flow will be from the northwest to southeast with a signal in the data for a storm complex to impact part of the area. The flow will quickly transition to a southwest flow Tuesday into next week. It’s too early to pinpoint the exact location, but we’ll keep the chances around 20% for the period.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!